Installations in Contested Environments

The Taiwan crisis of 2027

>MajGen Maxwell currently serves as the Commander, Marine Corps Installations Command, Commanding General, Marine Corps National Capital Region Command, and Assistant Deputy Commandant, Installations and Logistics (Facilities). He most recently served as the Vice Director for Logistics on the Joint Staff. He previously served as the Assistant Deputy Commandant, Installations and Logistics (Plans, Policies, and Strategic Mobility), Commanding General, 2nd MLG, and Combined Joint Director of Logistics for the NATO Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan.

Force Design 2030 and Installations and Logistics 2030 describe evolving missions and new capability requirements driven by a changing operating environment. Installations and Logistics 2030 is explicit about challenges associated with installations in contested environments and makes the following key points:

  • To posture ourselves against the threat of peer and near-peer competitors, we need to rethink our view of Marine Corps installations.
  • Our installations must be able to provide the full range of infrastructure and trained personnel required by the future force.
  • Our installations must enable training, force readiness, experimentation, mobilization, and deployment while also improving quality of life for Marines, their families, and the civilian workforce.
  • Smart, resilient, networked installations will provide stand-in forces with enhanced capabilities to recover quickly from attack, persist in contested spaces, and sustain distributed formations.
  • We must ensure force protection efforts enable continuity of operations, protection, and safety of our families, and our forces to meet operational requirements.
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Marine Corps installations and forces in the first island chain as seen from the PRC perspective. (Photo provided by author.)

The following vignette explores the contours of the changing operating environment and the associated implications for our installation through a fictional account of a security crisis occurring in 2027. While longer than most articles, a vignette is the most efficient way to animate the guidance in Force Design 2030 and Installations and Logistics 2030 while also illuminating the many challenges and opportunities associated with making our installations ready.

The Taiwan Crisis of 2027 System Attack–Systemic Defeat
Cloudy, with late afternoon rain was the forecast as Col Kay Smith headed up the gentle rise skirting the Okinawa Expressway toward Taiyo Golf Course for an early morning tee time with Col John Harmon and Col Steve White. As on most Saturday mornings in Okinawa, the plan for Kay was to get her mind focused on having a good round of golf after a week of non-stop mini-crises in her job as the Deputy Commander of Marine Corps Installations Pacific, but today there was something else on her mind: the rising tensions between China and Taiwan had serious implications for the operations and safety of the bases and stations under her command. Eighteen holes with Harmon, the III MEF G-3, and White, the Commanding Officer of 12th Marine Littoral Regiment, offered an opportunity to discuss her concerns with respected friends and colleagues. She seldom saw White, but she looked forward to catching up since they had known each other since The Basic School.

Driving into the parking lot afforded a glimpse of the verdant dark green course, having benefited from the above-average rainfall of the past few months. Unsurprisingly, John and Steve were running a little late, so Kay signed in and started some warm-up swings. After some additional stretches and a brief chat with a friendly groundskeeper, John came hustling over with Steve in trail.

“Hey, sorry we’re late. Let’s get going or we’ll miss our tee time,” said John.

“Right,” Kay said with a wry smile as she glanced at her watch. “Let’s get to it.”

By the 9th hole, the trio had settled into the flow of the game, and Kay ventured some shop talk.

“So, guys, the Chinese seem to be stepping up their Taiwan torment; more aircraft intrusions and more saber rattling. The G-6 says cyber intrusions are way above average. I think we should be stepping up preparations. I know we’re reviewing our base and station readiness.” John and Steve cocked their heads and looked at each other.

“There she goes again, always the professional,” Steve quipped, having known Kay for 23 years.

Niceties dispensed with, John took on a serious tone and said, “Yes Kay, you’re right to be concerned. Indications and Warnings are tipping into the red; we could be in for some unpleasantness in the coming months.”

“We’re ready,” Steve added. “The regiment is in good shape, and we’ve got several elements doing reconnaissance/counter reconnaissance in the lower Ryukyus and northern Luzon. We’ve actually detected some atypical PLAN submarine activity well east of Taiwan. But I’m not sure I get it Kay, what’re you worried about; our bases and stations aren’t going anywhere.”

“That’s precisely why I’m so concerned,” Kay responded. “It’s much easier to target a fixed installation than a low-signature distributed force. Would the PLA be more inclined to use expensive missiles on large, fixed bases or a small, hard-to-target, mobile unit? We’re sitting ducks.”

Somehow that game flow had evaporated. “OK,” John offered, “let’s call it at nine and talk about this over some yakisoba and a Sakura.”

At the table, John picked up where they left off. “OK, let’s remember where we are, so keep it unclass, but let’s think this through a bit. Kay, you started this, so what’s bothering you most?”

“Well, starting at the top, strategically, it just doesn’t make sense to me that we’re treating our bases and stations like we did when we UDP’d here as lieutenants. The threat’s very different now. We’re in the same arc of fires as our deployed operational units. That’s a big difference, right?”

“An attack here would be really escalatory, and might bring Japan in as an active combatant,” Steve opined.

“Remember Putin?” John interjected. “That insanity was just five years ago. It’s hard to predict an autocrat’s decision calculus,” he continued, looking ever more serious. “Kay, tell me what has been done to improve the posture of our installations as of late.”

Looking askance, Steve muttered, “But look where that got Putin: six feet under. Maybe Xi learned something.”

Kay had hoped the discussion would get to this point. “We’ve done a lot, but so much still needs to be done. We’ve barely moved the needle with Headquarters Marine Corps on resources. I think it’s important that we’re now tied into the theater missile defense early warning system and we can send warnings out to all smartphones if the threat dictates. That’s critical for Marines, civilians, and their families. Unfortunately, we’ve still not gotten the mobile cell towers we requested, in part because we’re still working on spectrum access with the Japanese. We need to keep pushing this. Steve, your folks might find them of use tactically, if we go Corregidor.”

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Range and capability analysis of People’s Liberation Army Air and Rocket Forces. (Photo provided by author.)Steve chuckled while John’s arched eyebrows conveyed some skepticism over the World War II analogy, but his demeanor was now quite serious.

“And to be fair,” she continued, “there have been some other notable improvements over the last five years, and not just in IT upgrades. After pushing the issue for a couple of years, all our Installation Marines have a T/O [table of organization] weapon assigned and do annual FAM [familiarization] fire at a minimum. We have also developed healthy habitual relationships with elements of MARFORRES. Using reservists to fill holes created by our reduced reliance on FAP [Fleet Assistance Program] billets, and we now have the ability to fill vacancies with individual augments for the remaining FAP personnel when they get pulled during a crisis. Also, while there are IT and sensor elements associated with Global Logistics Awareness, hopefully, you’re seeing a difference in the responsiveness of logistics to operational requirements. The biggest deal has been the change in mindset. Logisticians are no longer waiting to be told the requirement, they are anticipating and planning for future requirements by integrating logistics into operational planning. The old way just won’t cut it given how distributed we are nowadays—and it also helps Installations by improving our situational awareness on LOGCOM [Logistics Command] and FMF logistics support requirements.

“OK,” John said, “balanced argument noted Kay, but give us the wavetops of today’s challenges,” the golf game already a distant memory. “What else?”

“Let me do it in terms you guys might best understand: the seven warfighting functions—it’s still seven right? We haven’t added yet another one recently, have we?” Kay jested, trying to lighten the mood she had precipitated, if only just a tad.

Kay opened a firehose of pent-up frustration. “Let’s start with command and control. John, whether you’re in Guam or here in Okinawa, you obviously understand the importance of your operations center. It needs to work 24/7 regardless of weather or enemy action. You know that, but did you know the communications grid that underpins it is brittle and lacks adequate capacity? You know our computers are old and slow; you see them every day, and you might guess that routers and servers need to be upgraded, but you might not think about the cables running down the streets and in the walls of our facilities. They are from a different era.”

“I’ve been told you might need to actually fight the MEF from your garrison facilities given the ranges of our latest missiles—and the PLA’s. The bandwidth required to support the surveillance, tracking, and targeting of enemy assets is growing constantly. Our IT pipes are strained passing PowerPoint slide decks. So much for full-motion video and passing target data back to CONUS! And it gets better; the power grid that runs the communications grid is even less resilient. Much of our communications grid is buried, but most of our power grid is overhead. We lose power with every hurricane or typhoon. What will it be like if the PLA comes knocking? Steve, you’ve at least got your tactical communications. That’ll work locally, but what if space is denied? A redundant underwater fiber line might be essential for off-island comms.”

“Every Marine loves to shoot stuff—fires is a perennial investment favorite—so you’d think we’d be good to go, right? Well, not exactly. First, Steve, you understand the limitations we have with ranges. Individual and crew-served weapons aren’t too bad, although we probably don’t shoot enough, the big challenges are the limited areas we have to do live fire and maneuver and where we can shoot artillery and missiles. We’re still waiting on funding to build virtual training ranges. Admittedly, a big part of the problem is a posture that mal-positions one-third of our operating forces for training, but we’ll save that one for another day.”

“We need to be able to simulate the entire kill chain for our anti-ship missiles, and we’re just not there yet. The sim center is still just a POM30 unfunded deficiency,” Steve chimed in. “Kay, don’t forget ranges for our loitering munitions. We can do some training at Fuji and Tinian, but that’s it, and since the smaller loitering munitions are integral to squad, platoon, and company operations, we need more reps and sets.”

“Force protection—wow, where to begin?” Kay said. “Of all the priorities in my job jar, this one worries me the most. Talk about multi-domain; we’ve got threats coming from every direction: cyber, drones, SCADA attacks, ubiquitous sensing, insider threats, CBRNE—heck we even have space-based and sub-orbital challenges, plus the usual concerns for hypersonic cruise missile and ballistic missile attack. We just haven’t adapted fast enough to have answers to these threats. From my time in P&R [Programs and Resources], I know there hasn’t been the trade space given our constrained budget topline and we had to get the basic new warfighting capabilities fielded.”

“Damn right,” Steve interjected. “We wouldn’t have been able to provide the sensing and fires to the Joint Force that we can now.”

“I’m with you,” Kay continued, “but now we need to think like the Chinese. This is a warfighting system we’re talking about, a system that doesn’t work without protection, sustainment, and installations that can operate in a contested environment. The PLA doesn’t think in terms of our stovepipes, they see a system and look for the weak link in the chain, and yours truly is holding the weakest link. I feel a disturbance in the Force.”

John had to say something at this point.

“Kay, come on. You SAW [School of Advanced Warfighting] Jedi always love those Star Wars references, but maybe you’re being just a bit too dramatic. We can’t afford to do everything.”

“Maybe … maybe,” Kay replied, “but when a lone Chinese SOF operator drops his backpack and releases ten loitering munitions that put holes in six JSF on the flightline, we’ll see how dramatic things can really get. Anyway, that’s a good segue to information and intelligence challenges. Both of these functions have increased steady-state requirements far beyond what they were when we were lieutenants. In competition, especially here in the Pacific, we’re in the fight every day. We need to have 24/7 intel on below-the-threshold threats, and we all read the CHINFO [Chief of Information] media summary every morning. There’s a constant back and forth as we, and our allies and partners, try to expose Chinese bad behavior and counter their disinformation campaign.”

“From my standpoint, we’ve had to band-aid our communications grid, which wasn’t built for the bandwidth and security requirements associated with these new demands. I mean, even battalions and regiments need PED [processing, exploitation, dissemination] facilities and these things often run 24/7, which means 24/7 chow hall hours and IT support. Security of these facilities is an issue as well.”

“You’re not being overdramatic in the least about this point, Kay,” Steve said nodding. “We were running an MQ-9 mission last week and we had some comm problems. We had to call the Enterprise Help Desk, the same service an action officer gets sitting at a desk building slides. I couldn’t believe it. We had to scrub the mission.”

“OK, well my soliloquy is almost over; just two more functions,” Kay said, picking up where she left off. John rolled his eyes.

“Maybe more of a diatribe than a soliloquy Kay,” he said, “but I like your passion. I get where you’re coming from. We need to have a conversation with the CG.”

“So, logistics is still logistics, always key, but Steve you mentioned loitering munitions. We need some additional funding to get the ammo storage facilities up to speed to allow us to store the munitions and their batteries in adjacent facilities, and our NMESIS missile systems would benefit from humidity-controlled storage. But the bigger picture, I’m concerned we could actually be like Corregidor in World War II. We’re at the end of a tenuous line of communications. The PLAN might decide to interfere with them with actions that drive up shipping insurance costs, and they could even get more aggressive and actively interdict shipping to Okinawa. We can’t prepare for everything of course, but we should at least have some extra stores on hand to ensure we have enough fuel, food, and ammo to sustain us should the Chinese decide to cut us off. John, do you agree?”

“I do, as long as we don’t get too crazy. I think I’m going to name the MEF CP Malinta,” he said with a little less sarcasm than his previous quip about World War II analogies.

Kay continued, “There’s also the potential for huge expenditure rates of munitions and the possibility for substantial combat attrition. We need to have a distributed and resilient stockpile of munitions that our operating forces can access, both at home base and when deployed with allies and partners in their territory. Unfortunately, our PGMs [precision-guided munitions] are located in known Navy ammo supply points. We’ve just not been able to get the resources to do distributed prepositioning, which, ironically, is substantially less costly than the old maritime prepositioning approach. I guess ships are just more interesting than warehouses, which is unfortunate because the relevant combat power of our new missiles is on a par with previous configurations and doesn’t require ships, connectors, escorts, and vehicles—all without the delay of RSO&I [reception, staging, onward movement, and integration]. Old paradigms die hard, I get it, but we’ve got to get folks to understand the increased power density of new weapons systems and their amazingly low cost per strike mile … but I digress.”

“Back to the need for reconstitution. We haven’t had to worry about this for decades; it’s just not in our psyche to increase planning factors to account for the kind of expenditure rates and attrition we’re likely to face. We need to have more robust facilities to accommodate repair and refit. This will need to be a long-haul effort to change our cultural proclivities. Finally, I promise, we come to maneuver.”

“Yup, got it,” said Steve.

“Yea, me too, got it, maneuver is key,” John reiterated.

“OK, sure but what about installations?” Kay replied.

“Good grief,” said John. “You’re not going to try and sell us on mobile installations are you?”

“Of course not,” said Kay, “but have you considered that installations, at the very least, provide a base for maneuver? If we were not postured across the first and second island chains and you moved your regiment tactically to the same geography currently occupied by our bases and stations, would you say we have conducted operational maneuver in relation to our adversary? I would say yes!”

“Hmm, hadn’t really thought about it in those terms,” said Steve.

“As we increase our inventories of PGMs at all echelons and their ranges increase, we will increasingly maneuver not to assault, but to gain positional advantage for indirect and long-range precision fires. Our bases and stations occupy terrain in the mutual weapons engagement zone of our forces and those of our adversaries. So, it’s not inconceivable we could be firebases for these weapon systems. It might not be our primary COA [course of action], but if we’re cut off, it might be our only option to take the fight to the PLA. Of course, that moves us up the PLA’s list of target priorities, which gets me to resilience.”

“Obviously, we can’t afford to harden everything, but we need to think deliberately about how to maintain continuity of operations for all of our critical infrastructure. Our critical infrastructure must be resilient and some assets may even need to be hardened for weapons effects vice just resilience.”

“Like in a tunnel or underground,” John winked. He was ready for this one. “The CG has been talking about this issue at nearly every weekly staff meeting. He understands it’s an issue that needs attention. He gets it.”

“Awesome,” Kay said, “That’s what we get for having a loggie as MEF commander. Only the second time, if I recall correctly!” She continued. “Resilience is a term of art in the installations community, but I like to keep things simple. The Air Force has a succinct definition: the capability of an installation to sustain the projection of combat power by protecting against, responding to, and recovering from deliberate, accidental, or naturally occurring events. I think that about covers it.”

“The CG is really worried about fuel,” John said.

“That makes sense; it’s a critical vulnerability. Of course, it’s the vulnerability of the storage tanks, but perhaps the most problematic is the fuel handling infrastructure, especially for aviation. It’s a tough nut,” Kay affirmed.

Two Months Later
Two months after their golf outing, and five years to the day since Xi Jinping was proclaimed “ruler for life,” the onslaught began, not with a bang, but with an incremental, yet unmistakable escalation across multiple fronts.

It appears the Chinese paid as much attention to our doctrine, concepts, and force posture as we had. For over a month, they gathered an amphibious armada that tripped indications and warning systems, so we knew something was coming. We assumed it was a massive amphibious assault on Taiwan, a Chinese version of D-Day, but to our surprise, that did not happen. Instead, they began a graduated, slowly expanding interdiction of Taiwan’s connections to the outside world. Undersea fiber optic cables stopped working, then space-based communications became unreliable, maritime militia significantly ramped up interference in commercial fishing operations throughout the South China Sea, and a northbound container ship sank suspiciously in moderately foul weather.

One month into China’s campaign of intimidation, their playbook of malign activities appeared limitless. It was at this point that one of Kay’s worst fears was realized. Through an intense information campaign, China made clear that any interference in their Taiwan campaign by the United States would result in devastating attacks upon U.S. bases and stations. They explicitly called out Camp Humphries in South Korea, Kadena AFB, Marine Corps installations on Okinawa, and Anderson AFB and Camp Blaz on Guam. The warnings were very precise and stated that any damage to property or personnel other than those named U.S. installations would be unintended collateral damage. China emphasized the attacks would be precision strikes, focused solely on U.S. property and personnel.

The Chinese thus presented our President with a dilemma—support Taiwan’s defense or risk attacks on tens of thousands of military and civilian personnel and their dependents. The President was in a difficult place. If he took overt military action against the Chinese anaconda plan to constrict Taiwan’s line of communications, the United States would be the first party to initiate combat, and at the same time, potentially thousands of U.S. citizens would lose their lives. Xi apparently was taking notes in 2022 when Putin catalyzed Western resolve with a massive, violent military assault on Ukraine. It was a black-and-white situation, whereas China’s actions were all shades of gray.

Early on, when Chinese preparations were accelerating, Marine Stand-in Forces had been deployed from Okinawa and Guam to northern Luzon and Miyakojima, Kumejima, and Tokashiki Islands to the west and south of Okinawa. These distributed Stand-in Forces provided surveillance and sea denial fires options for the Luzon and Miyako Straits while providing enhanced situational awareness to the Joint Force. Given the gradualist approach adopted by China, having a thicker and more diverse range of sensors proved to be especially important to national command authorities given the large uncertainties associated with China’s chosen approach—a massive all-out attack with missiles and an amphibious assault would have provided a more simplified, black and white decision calculus for U.S. response. The options for ISR, cyber ops, information ops, targeting, and strike that Stand-in Forces add to the Joint Force’s expanded decision-maker options to allow for a measured and agile response, able to scale commensurate with China’s incrementalism.

One Month Later
“BREAKING NEWS—CHINA REPEATS THREATS TO U.S. PACIFIC BASES,” read the TV banner in Marine Corps Installations Pacific’s crisis action center adjacent to the Joint Force Maritime Component Commander Forward/III MEF COC.

It did not help Kay’s mood that she had been warning about such an eventuality. Told you so was not a helpful attitude, and she knew it. Now was the time to do the best with what was at hand.

“OpsO, I need to see our most recent SITREP,” she requested.

Kay ran through a mental checklist of installation functions to ensure all necessary measures had been taken given China’s demonstrated propensity to avoid surfaces and look for gaps that could be exploited. It looked like installations were truly a gap in PLA eyes.

Law enforcement personnel were working extra shifts and perimeter security was stepped up. Fortunately, the recently fielded AI-enabled drones substantially reduced the manpower required for conducting patrols, but there were still concerns over operatives able to deploy electronic warfare in support of cyber operations, as well as jamming and physical damage to communications infrastructure. The 2024 decision to issue installation Marines weapons was proving to be a wise move, enabling them to provide additional support to perimeter security. Hard to believe we had become so assured in our security we had forward-stationed Marines without weapons or weapons training.

Thankfully, the reservist rotational augments were fully incorporated into bases and stations—yet another manpower improvement over the last few years. Kay made a note to request a surge to get the next rotation in early and to encourage as many currently assigned personnel as possible to extend.

Tenant commands were operating around the clock, so there was an increased demand for chow halls, IT support, and maintenance. Kay made a mental note to talk to John to see what MEF might be able to do to help with surveillance and security operations to allow Marines with specialized installation skills to support base surge ops.

Cpl Sanchez interrupted, “Ma’am, the MEF G-2 is on the phone.”

“OK, I’ll take it,” said Kay with some apprehension, as she had a good idea what Joe wanted. “Joe, how can I help you?” she asked.

“Kay, we’re getting crushed, we’ve got the majority of our tactical sensors deployed and we’re getting fire hosed with data, but the network is clobbered, our PED’sters can’t get their jobs done, and they say it’s not processing capacity, it’s a bandwidth problem.”

As Kay suspected, installations communications grid upgrades had been an unfunded deficiency for four years running. Base comm grids were largely still copper and simply lacked the capacity. Back in Virginia, she recalled having fiber run to her house by a commercial vendor years ago, providing one gigabyte per second upload and download speeds. Her house had more bandwidth than the MEF-sensitive compartmented information facility, which is crazy but true and not to mention electromagnetic pulse attack was not a big consideration when she decided to shift to fiber for her home—so there was that vulnerability to think about as well.

“Joe, sorry, we understand the problem. Tell you what, I’ll talk to our comms folks. Perhaps we can have them team with Comm Battalion to run some fiber to a tactical SATCOM link,” Kay offered. “I’ve already asked engineers to disperse their generators to ensure we have backup tactical power generation if needed.”

“Kay, OK I appreciate that, but you know space is going to be unreliable. Perhaps they could tie into a commercial fiber point of presence,” said Joe.

“Right, we’ll look into that as well,” Kay agreed. “I’ll let you know tomorrow where we are with the band-aid.”

Kay looked up to see Sanchez back at the hatch looking serious.

“Ma’am, we just got a message saying the next UDP battalion won’t deploy on time—some sketchy stuff going on in Pendleton, Twentynine Palms, and Lejeune.”

“Need some specifics Sanchez, like what?” asked Kay.

“Well, in addition to the interruptions in the Global Logistics Awareness systems you’re already aware of—like sensors dropping off and recurring network outages—there’s been a number of intrusions into our range control systems stateside, and it’s been affecting the training cycle. That ankle-biter stuff set the battalion back a few weeks, but now there’s been major disruptions in contract air operations—but that’s not the worst of it. Third Battalion 2d Marines was at Cherry Point forming up in the parking lot after the buses dropped them off and a quadcopter flew over; they’re thinking it might have dispensed anthrax. They’ve got to all be tested, and it’ll be a day or two before they can confirm what it was. I got a text from Sgt Mulvaney who’s a grunt in 3/2 Mar. He was looking forward to escaping the Lejeune heat since his barracks A/C was broken again, but now they’re back in barracks waiting on test results. Just lots extra friction regardless of whether it was an actual bio-attack or not.”

Kay turned back to the situation report and the logistics support section. Two dry store ships had been delayed due to maritime militia activities in the South China Sea and Naha Port authorities were reporting other delays as well. The commissaries would be out of fresh produce in a week, and there was only a two-week supply of baby formula. Fortunately, the base had gained funding for an additional two-month supply of MREs that could feed all tenants and dependents, but good luck feeding MREs to infants. Maybe we can frag a C-130 to make a run to the mainland for formula, putting a whole new meaning to the old term milk run, thought Kay in disbelief. How did we get to such a place?

At least the training ranges were in pretty good shape, but ammo levels were not what they should be. The arms room concept placed an increased requirement for ammo to qualify a wider number of Marines, whereas before only specialized MOSs qualified on crew-served and shoulder-fired rockets. It was unquestionably critical to have more Marines trained in more weapons platforms, but ammo allowances had still not increased to levels necessary to get everyone trained to standard.

Virtual and constructive training helped with training on artillery and missile systems, but the facility envisioned by Project Tripoli just had its groundbreaking last month. Despite MCICOM’s efforts, it was still taking five years to get new facility construction started and then there were the inevitable construction delays. At any rate, no reason to dwell on this now; it is what it is, she thought. There were more immediate concerns.

Two Weeks Later
There was now no question that China was all in on gaining control of Taiwan. Essential supplies were still arriving in Guam and Okinawa, but merchant ships were now organized into escorted convoys after the investigation of the lost container ship EVER GENTLE revealed ambiguous but highly suspicious indications that there had been a PLAN submarine in the area of the sinking.

Evacuation of dependents proceeded apace with charter flights leaving at regular intervals from Naha International Airport and Kadena Air Force Base. Once these flights were completed, the concerns over food and medical care for tenants would be substantially reduced, but it remained to be seen whether the departure of dependents would make the bases and stations more or less likely to be targeted. On the receiving end, Marine Corps Installations–West was busy with the influx of new families. It would have been good to have rehearsed this non-combatant evacuation operation beforehand to develop a playbook for how to secure quarters, guidelines for what could be taken, and more information to give the displaced about what to expect on the other end. Still unresolved was who would care for all the pets remaining behind.

Currently
To date, the Chinese have still not taken overt military operations and the United States has decided to work with the international community to impose economic sanctions on China while also increasing naval and air forces in between the first and second island chains.

Kay could only hope that sanctions worked. The evacuation of dependents from Japanese locations reduced the burden substantially, but that did not increase ammo levels or ensure that theater air and missile defenses would make much difference if China decided to go kinetic.

Maybe the installations would weather the storm. Kay could only hope because there was nothing else to be done; it would depend on the Chinese.

Epilogue
Can a fait accompli be slow and progressive? Does it have to be so sudden the opponent is unable to offer a timely response in hours or days?

With the benefit of hindsight, what appeared at the time to be a progressive ratcheting up of intimidating actions by the Chinese looks today more like a fait accompli given China’s studied exploitation of our vulnerabilities and the recognition that they had tailored a long-term campaign to gain control of Taiwan and then executed it to near perfection. America and its allies and partners did respond to Chinese provocations quickly but in a measured series of economic, information, diplomatic, and military actions, with varying levels of effectiveness. Yet today, China controls Taiwan’s apparatus of government and is working to consolidate total control over the island.

As an adversary with a mature Long-Range Precision Strike complex, the Chinese changed the battlespace in novel and unanticipated ways. The ability to create effects, without changing location, meant the Chinese could threaten to attack or conduct an attack at very low cost. By manipulating our Indications and Warnings, they were able to force us to react, executing flush plans, conducting a noncombatant evacuation operation, and focusing on internal housekeeping matters while they had none of the traditional logistical or temporal costs associated with moving into battle position.

Attack or threat of attack was fast and cheap for the Chinese, whereas we had to move large forces great distances, evacuate families, and implement ad hoc defensive measures to cover installation vulnerabilities. Also, their attack options had the benefit of being precise, thus allowing them to modulate collateral damage. Importantly, they could attack any target set within range of their munitions while we had perhaps overfocused on protecting tactical formations to the detriment of fixed installations.

The DOD rightly recognized the need to improve its abilities to target and attack PLA forces back in 2018, but this focus evolved into tunnel vision given resource constraints across the Department that forced budgets to focus only on the “top” priorities vice the Joint Force’s system priorities. Underinvestment in system enablers opened a seam the Chinese drove their missiles through. The Chinese viewed all U.S. assets within their weapons engagement zone as valid targets, and without the baggage of our cultural propensities, they were clear-eyed as to where the U.S. was most vulnerable and what targets would best achieve their political objectives.

The Chinese knew our democracy demanded the President pay close attention to public sentiment, and Taiwan did not resonate with the American polity as had Putin’s attack on Ukraine. This was not because Americans had a greater affinity for a European war. Rather, it was because of the way the Chinese had learned from Putin’s mistakes and adopted a gradualist approach that avoided bloodshed until the very end of their campaign. By then, it was too late to walk back the chain of events they had orchestrated.

China’s strategy leveraged American ambivalence by threatening to attack U.S. citizens and military personnel at U.S. bases and stations located within their desired sphere of influence, and the President decided to avoid escalation until U.S. non-combatants could be evacuated. Perhaps savvily, China chose not to interfere with the evacuation. They understood they were losing some of their leverage, but the vulnerability of U.S. installations left plenty of targets possessing both military and iconic value for them to threaten. In return, they gained more of their most valuable commodity: time.

It is clear now that posture matters greatly. Vulnerabilities are vulnerabilities, whether operating force or supporting establishment, especially in the eyes of an adversary who may understand political vulnerabilities better than the U.S. military, given they have the benefit of not being burdened by the U.S. military’s inclination to focus primarily on military outcomes.

The Joint Force and the Nation’s infrastructure and industrial base comprise a system that was perhaps better understood by previous generations. In World War I and World War II, key cities, bases, fortresses, and industries were early military objectives of both sides, but during the long interregnum of our military hegemony since then, we forgot. The Chinese had not.

The Arms Room Concept

How multi-disciplinary Marines provide maximum flexibility to a distributed force

>Capt Sanderfield is currently serving as the Operations Officer for 1/2 Mar. He was the Company Commander for Alpha Company, the experimental Force Design 2030 company from July 2021 to April 2023.

 

The character of war is changing, and the Commandant has taken ambitious steps to redesign the force to confront a capable adversary in the Pacific. One of the most contentious aspects of the Commandant’s Force Design initiative is the Arms Room Concept. Under this concept, the Marine Corps infantry would transition away from some specifically defined MOSs to a force that leverages a multi-disciplinary Marine capable of employing a variety of different weapons systems on the battlefield. Responding to a question about the Arms Room Concept, BGen Watson, Commanding Gen Marine Corps Warfighting Lab said, “So the arms room means that you would have a sort of an armory of many different systems, and your Marines would be trained in all of them, and then you pick the weapons suited to the mission … as opposed to having single-threat Marines who are only experts at one system.”(1) As a company commander of Alpha Company 1/2 Mar, an experimental Force Design 2030 rifle company, my team and I have been on the forefront of creating multi-disciplinary Marines utilizing the Arms Room Concept over the last eighteen months. This period has resulted in many lessons learned and recommendations on how infantry battalions can overcome systematic shortfalls and effectively implement the Arms Room Concept going forward. With additional investments of time, resources, and an adjusted approach to enlisted infantry schooling, infantry battalions can employ multi-disciplinary Marines to provide maximum flexibility on a chaotic and distributed battlefield.

The push towards the development of the multi-disciplinary Marine is not one of desire, but one of necessity. Static positions and massed formations are terribly easy to find and target, especially against an adversary like Russia and China who possess a robust suite of sensors and persistent ISR capabilities. However, as this technology continues to develop and spread, it is no longer just the major power players who possess the ability to leverage space-based ISR platforms and unmanned-aerial systems to hunt their adversaries. These systems, coupled with precision-guided missiles, long-range rockets, and cheap loitering over-the-horizon suicide drones will force military formations to become smaller and more dispersed to survive. Operating within this type of environment makes it no longer tenable to train Marines to become experts at one singular weapons system. As formations operate further away from their higher headquarters, small units will be required to possess a multitude of assets, weaponry, and capability sets.

The common question that comes up when discussing the creation of multi-disciplinary Marines is which weapons systems should encompass the arms room and which capabilities will require a Marine with a specific MOS. While training every Marine to become proficient and qualified in every weapons system is desirable, it is unrealistic in application. Within Alpha Company’s Force Design structure, specialty-trained Marines and weapons traditionally held at the battalion level, such as Javelin missiles, heavy machineguns, mortars, and loitering munitions, have been transferred from what was previously weapons company to the company’s hunter killer platoon. These complex weapons systems require Marines with advanced-level training and were not included in our training to create multi-disciplinary Marines.

What Does the Arms Room Concept Provide the Service?
Flexible/adaptive force
A leading benefit of the Arms Room Concept has been the flexibility it has provided the company. As the 2nd MarDiv Experimental Force Design rifle company within 1/2 Mar, the company had the privilege of executing a series of difficult experimental training exercises across the United States. These exercises were designed to push the limits of an infantry company, employing advanced sensors and weaponry within exercise scenarios for the company to distances exceeding 50 kilometers from the rest of the battalion. In each of these instances, the company’s platoons and squads were distributed another five-ten kilometers to accomplish independent tasks assigned by the company commander. Upon insertion of the company into the exercise operational area frequently dominated by adversary sensors and anti-air missile systems, there was virtually no ability to adjust or reallocate key assets or crew-served weapons across formations. Doing so would require the use of already limited transportation platforms and would expose the force to the risk of detection and subsequent targeting.

Alpha Company’s employment of multi-disciplinary Marines and access to previously held battalion-level assets at the company level were key components that enabled success in a distributed operating environment. By having medium machineguns, rockets, long-range precision rifles, and recoilless rifles within each platoon, platoon commanders and squad leaders have the unique ability to custom tailor their table of equipment to provide a mission-ready force to accomplish the task assigned. For the platoons and squads within Alpha Company, this has at times resulted in one squad carrying multiple medium machineguns and rocket systems while another is operating with a much lighter footprint carrying only their primary service rifle into the fight. Only by training Marines on every weapons system could these custom-tailored units have the flexibility required to be successful in a distributed fight against a capable adversary while simultaneously possessing the firepower required to mass when necessary.

Redundancy
Redundancy is another beneficial aspect of the Arms Room Concept. If the Marine who is typically responsible for employing the medium machinegun or Carl Gustav recoilless rifle is incapacitated, there is a squad’s worth of Marines who can pick it up and employ it effectively in the fight. This occurred during several of our exercises and will undoubtedly happen in the next big conflict. While the most common example included a simulated casualty for the Marine carrying a specific weapons system, there were other instances where a Marine became ill or was simply needed to execute some other task. By having this redundancy, the unit never lost the capability that the weapons system provided because there was a ready bench of capable Marines who could pick up and employ that weapons system in the fight effectively.

Redundant capabilities have additional benefits beyond providing a company with a strong bench of utility players. It provides the option to weigh units in a way that was not previously possible. By having thirteen Marines who are trained to employ the medium machinegun or recoilless rifle within a squad, a company commander has the option to weigh that unit with additional weapons to allow for the accomplishment of a task such as an attack by fire or support by fire. The availability of these options has undoubtedly made the unit a more capable, flexible, and deadly force.

It is important to note that although redundancy means that a squad could theoretically hand a medium machinegun, grenade launcher, or recoilless rifle to any Marine within the squad to effectively employ, naturally the proficiency levels amongst the Marines will vary. We have addressed this by striving to train all Marines to be incidental operators with each of the weapons within the Arms Room. This means mandatory, across-the-board cross-training built into the training schedule to ensure every Marine can at least pick up a weapon, load it properly, conduct appropriate misfire procedures, and manipulate a machinegun’s traversing and elevation mechanism or a recoilless rifle’s sight system to engage various targets on the battlefield.

Enhances Integration
A point often used to argue against the Arms Room Concept is that there is no requirement to have these weapons capabilities organic to the rifle platoons and squads, for they can be attached by the company if required. While this argument is true on the surface, it overlooks the significant benefit of having Marines with those capabilities organic to each small unit. By platoons having access to the weapons and Marines during training, they will be best postured to accurately understand their capabilities, limitations, and how to best employ them on the battlefield. The valuable trust built through time and repetitions cannot be replicated with an attachment that may or may not have worked with the unit before. Instead of receiving an attachment whose true physical capability and overall proficiency are unknown and largely assumed, the Marines are already an organic part of that small unit. Under the new construct that employs multi-disciplinary Marines, a single rifle platoon can serve as a heavy support-by-fire element complete with a full complement of machineguns while also providing organic internal security. Previously, this same task would require several attachments from outside the platoon to accomplish. Now, each platoon commander and squad leader have the capabilities required within their units with their multi-disciplinary Marines.

Recommendations
The implementation of the Arms Room Concept provides the Marine Corps infantry with a much more capable, lethal, and flexible force, but it does come at a significant cost. To create highly proficient multi-disciplinary Marines, the Marine Corps will have to adjust the way we man, train, and equip future infantry formations. Below are some recommendations for how infantry company commanders can approach this issue to support its implementation and future use across every infantry battalion.

Building Capabilities Incrementally
Training all Marines within an infantry rifle squad to effectively employ every weapons system available does take an extraordinary amount of time and energy. That said, it is achievable if you take an incremental approach to building capabilities over time. Those who typically push back on the concept will point out that it is impossible for every Marine to have the same level of proficiency as a current machine gunner who has years of fleet experience and advanced-level training. However, the goal of the Arms Room Concept is not to blindly hand weapons to any Marine in your formation and expect the same results. Instead, the goal is to create highly lethal teams made up of multi-disciplinary Marines who can perform a laundry list of tasks and employ a variety of weapons systems. With a future operating environment characterized by contested airspace and severe distribution of maneuvering forces, Marine Corps units cannot afford to fill a critical seat on any insert helicopter with someone who can only carry out one singular task or employ one specific weapon.

Critics of the Arms Room Concept express concern about losing a level of technical proficiency by moving away from designated Marines who employ some of these weapons in the previous, legacy construct. Although a valid concern, the argument tends to exaggerate the complexity of certain weapons while also ignoring that the Marine Corps has long trained Marines to employ multiple weapons systems. Combat engineers and artillerymen each cross-train Marines to employ machineguns for localized security. Even within the infantry, squads for decades trained traditional riflemen to employ the M249 squad automatic weapon, a light machinegun organic within each fire team. Marines carrying this machinegun achieved much success in combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan before the Corps transitioned to the current service rifle.

To accomplish our goal of incrementally creating multi-functional Marines who can employ each weapons system in the Arms Room Concept, Alpha Company started by selecting the most common weapons systems the squad would likely use on the battlefield. These included the Infantry Automatic Rifle, the M320 grenade launcher, Carl Gustav recoilless rifle, and the M240 medium machinegun. With the agreed-upon understanding that it would take a large amount of time and ammunition for all Marines to become experts on each of these weapons, we started by qualifying every Marine on the basics, such as the ability to load, unload, and conduct misfire procedures for each weapon. As each Marine effectively demonstrated the ability to conduct these incidental-operator-level tasks, they were classified as qualified Marines capable of employing this weapons system if required. As each Marine trained to become qualified, small-unit leaders identified top performers who were evaluated in employing that weapon on a live-fire range. Those who were successful in this evaluation were designated as certified on that weapon and could now fire that weapon system in support of a maneuvering friendly element. Over the course of the pre-deployment workup, the company was able to qualify nearly every Marine in the rifle platoons on each weapon system while also building an impressive number of certified Marines who were the first ones within that unit to employ the weapon if the requirement was identified during planning.

Use of Simulators to Build Proficiency
Certifying every Marine on each weapon within the Arms Room Concept would require a massive increase in the amount of ammunition typically available to each infantry battalion. To continue to train multi-disciplinary Marines under this resource constraint, infantry companies will need to maximize the use of technology and simulators. The Marine Corps has made great strides over the years to ensure Marines have access to realistic simulators to train and build proficiency, and these systems will only get better as technology improves and becomes cheaper to replicate. Currently, every base installation has an Indoor Simulated Marksmanship Trainer (ISMT) available for units to schedule and use for training. Although Alpha Company did leverage these systems to a limited degree, this is admittedly a resource we should have used more. Company commanders should embrace the use of available simulators and incorporate them into their weekly training schedules to build individual weapons capabilities without expending the limited ammunition available.

Although the ISMT is a valuable resource for training Marines, there are currently several limitations associated with these systems. First, the limited number of simulators available on each installation will be insufficient to support every infantry battalion as they each transition to the Arms Room Concept. Either the current ISMTs will need to expand, or additional facilities will need to be constructed to meet the increasing demand. There will also need to be an expansion of weapon systems available within the current ISMTs to ensure they encompass the M320 and Carl Gustav, critical weapons within the arms room. Another option could be the investment in an ISMT type similar within each infantry battalion’s office space. While this would require significant initial investment and continued attention to keep them working and operational, the benefits would be well worth the cost. 1/2 Mar has seen the benefit of having an in-house simulator first-hand. Within a battalion command post, there is a dedicated training room with multiple Javelin and TOW missile simulators. Utilizing these training aids does not require an extensive request process or deconflicting with dozens of other units across the base. As a result, the company and battalion have been able to sustain proficiency with these weapons systems while building an impressive number of incidental operators despite not receiving the necessary number of missiles to train effectively. With additional investment in the access and quality of simulators, infantry units can overcome the limited availability of live ammunition and develop a capable unit of multi-disciplinary Marines.

Leverage/Create Subject-Matter Experts
The Arms Room Concept and the creation of multi-disciplinary Marines within infantry battalions are only possible through the possession of unit internal instructors and subject-matter experts to train Marines on the technical proficiency necessary to employ various weapon systems. Alpha Company, 1/2 Mar has been fortunate in this area. To achieve the task organization in the company that included an increased rank requirement, the rifle squads were built from Marines from every infantry MOS. This was particularly important at the small-unit leader level. Each squad was comprised of staff sergeant squad leaders, sergeant team leaders, and several junior NCOs who were school-trained machine gunners, mortarmen, and anti-armor Marines. The presence of this diverse set of skill sets allowed the company to leverage these warriors to develop a team of multi-disciplinary Marines within each rifle platoon.

As infantry battalions adopt the Arms Room Concept and explore ways to replace the different specialty MOSs into a consolidated all-encompassing 03XX MOS, the Marine Corps must ensure units have access to a bullpen of school-trained instructors to fill this critical role. Until the Advanced School of Infantry redesigns its infantry school pipeline to meet this new challenge, infantry battalions must continue to leverage courses such as Advanced Machine Gunners Course, Advanced Anti-Tank Missile Gunner Course, and Infantry Unit Leaders Course. Marines returning from these courses will have the technical proficiency necessary to help develop and train the other Marines in their platoons. In addition to maximizing the use of these current advanced schools to train Marines and build a cadre of capable instructors, each infantry division needs to play a part by crafting division schools that help units achieve the goal of creating multi-disciplinary Marines across their formations.

Warfare is experiencing a technological revolution where precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems will continue to proliferate and dominate the future battlefield. To meet the challenge of a future fight against a smart and capable near-peer or peer adversary, the Marine Corps infantry will need to transition away from a force of single-threat Marines to a more capable and flexible team of multi-disciplinary Marines capable of employing a variety of different weapons available within the unit’s armory. While Alpha Company 1/2 Mar has made a tremendous number of mistakes along the way and certainly does not have all the answers, our experience on the cutting edge of Force Design 2030 experimentation for the past eighteen months has informed us of the benefits of Arms Room Concept and the necessity of multi-disciplinary Marines within the infantry. With additional investments of time, resources, and an adjusted approach to enlisted infantry schooling, infantry battalions can employ multi-disciplinary Marines to provide maximum flexibility on a chaotic and distributed battlefield.


Notes

1. Megan Eckstein, “Marines Update Force Design 2030 After a Year of Experimentation in the Field,” United States Naval Institute News, April 26, 2021, https://news.usni.org/2021/04/26/marines-update-force-design-2030-after-a-year-of-experimentation-in-the-field.

The Death of the Marine Corps

The war in 2039

>GySgt Knight is an Infantry Unit Leader (0369) currently serving as an Operations Chief. He has served as every billet from Rifleman through Platoon Sergeant in support of Operations IRAQI FREEDOM and ENDURING FREEDOM. He has also served as Heavy Machinegun Platoon Sergeant, Scout Sniper Platoon Sergeant, and Weapons Company Operations Chief in support of Unit Deployment Program Okinawa.

 

The Marine Corps was rendered combat ineffective during the opening weeks of the U.S.-China War in December of 2039. First, Second, and Third MarDivs were systematically engaged by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) navy, air, and ground forces, which resulted in the reduction of these divisions by a combined 75 percent. China had used a specific and effective strategy to cripple the U.S. military. This process was the development of a worldwide trade route controlled by them, ceasing all trade with the United States and forcing military funding cuts.

In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the development of the Belt and Road Initiative. Seventy-one countries pledged to join in the endeavor.1 China quickly began making deals with these countries to build rail lines, improve roads, and build seaports in strategic locations. They would loan the money to the host country to build each project with only one stipulation, Chinese contracted companies would be hired to assist in the construction. China knew these countries would not be able to repay the accrued debts which allowed China to employ debt-trap diplomacy to gain strategic advantages in some of these areas.2 By 2017, the countries along the Belt received 35 percent of global foreign direct investments and accounted for 40 percent of global merchandise exports.3 This had all been part of China’s bigger concept of Tian Xia or world domination.4 The ground and maritime trade routes expanded their reach throughout the entire globe. This opened the trade routes and allowed China to influence a dominating portion of the trade deals made in the world. China began slowly arranging for resources to be acquisitioned from the countries along the Belt to reduce the number of materials they would need from U.S. suppliers.

During a press release in 2036, President Xi Jinping announced China would no longer receive any imports from the United States effectively gouging the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by fourteen percent. China again used debt-trap diplomacy to convince many of its partner countries to do the same. In total, the U.S. GDP was reduced by 24 percent over the next two years. This drastically affected the markets in the United States and caused an unexpected recession for which the American people were not prepared. Many companies that relied on exports went bankrupt and millions of Americans were laid off. The unemployment rate rose to eleven percent and the government was forced to start cutting its spending. By 2038, the defense budget was reduced by fifteen percent forcing the different branches to begin tightening their belts.

Due to these budget cuts much of the equipment the military used, including ships, could not be maintained. The Joint Chiefs of Staff decided to reduce the number of personnel in each of the branches to free up some funds to maintain its gear. The Marine Corps was reduced to 165,000. This forced the Marine Corps to disband all three battalions of the Fourth Marine Regiment and both battalions of the Eighth Marine Regiment as well as numerous support battalions. The Navy was also required to put 30 ships in long-term storage. The Third and Seventh Fleets took the brunt of the reduction as their ships had seen more use and required the most maintenance. This left a crucial gap in the maritime defenses in the Pacific, which Chinese military leaders exploited when they attacked the West Coast of the United States.

On 7 December 2039, U.S. Navy ships from the Third and Seventh Fleets came under fire from Chinese DF21D anti-ship ballistic missiles. These missiles were simultaneously launched from PLA Navy ships, cargo ships, and ground bases. The missiles were controlled by the Yaogan family of defense satellites they had launched between 2009 and 2012. The PLA Navy was able to target U.S. ships by monitoring their electronic emissions from the 8G personal electronic devices used by sailors aboard the ships. This attack successfully rendered both fleets’ combat ineffective. The PLA Navy then moved eight group armies (approximately 650,000 troops) from the PLA Ground Force to the West Coast of the United States unimpeded by utilizing ships that had been pre-staged and trade routes they had already established. Simultaneous with the attack on the U.S. Navy, the PLA Air Force conducted a massive aerial bombardment of Marine Corps Base Hawaii and Camp Butler Okinawa Japan. This raid was conducted by Xian H-6 long-range bombers launched from the Chinese Xi Jinping Air Station on the man-made Mischief Reef Island in the South China Sea. The raid effectively targeted the infrastructure and equipment of 3rd MarDiv resulting in a reduction of 90 percent. The PLA Ground Force invasion was contested by the 1st MarDiv as well as the U.S. Army’s 40th Infantry Division and the California National Guard. This joint task force, named Task Force Bear, was able to hold the PLA Ground Force in California until they could be reinforced by the 2nd MarDiv and the rest of the U.S. Army but not before being reduced by 85 percent. The 2nd MarDiv took 50 percent casualties during the intense fighting that followed. The loss of two of the three divisions was a fatal blow to the Marine Corps as a fighting force.

In the aftermath of the bloody U.S.-China war, Congress established a policy to prevent the country from becoming reliant on exports for such a large percentage of the GDP. This would prevent an adversary country from being able to reduce our GDP and defense budget just by monopolizing trade. When it came to the Marine Corps, Congress was also left with a choice. Re-constitute the divisions or amend Title X thereby dissolving and abolishing the Marine Corps. Ultimately, they chose the latter. On 10 November 2040, the Marine Corps Colors were retired for the final time. The remaining personnel and equipment were absorbed into the other branches.


Notes

1. Lily Kuo and Niko Kommenda, “What Is China’s Belt and Road Initiative?” The Guardian, July 30, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/cities/ng-interactive/2018/jul/30/what-china-belt-road-initiative-silk-road-explainer.

2. Ibid.

3. Caroline Freund and Michele Ruta, “Belt and Road Initiative,” The World Bank, March 29, 2018. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative.

4. Howard W. French, Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape Chinas Push for Global Power (New York: Vintage Books, 2018).

Machine Learning to Enhance Force Preservation

AI supporting leadership

>Capt Borinstein is an Intelligence Officer currently assigned to Company B, Marine Cryptologic Support Battalion at Fort Meade, MD. He holds a Master of Science in Data Analytics from the Georgia Institute of Technology.

 

Although generally not top of mind when considering the Marine Corps’ most pressing future warfighting challenges, mental fitness, and suicide prevention unquestionably remain a chief priority across the DOD. Today, suicide rates among service members are among the highest levels in their recorded history.1

In response to increasing suicide rates, the Marine Corps has resorted to requiring commanders to become more involved in Marines’ lives and applying the risk management process to those subjectively deemed at-risk through the Force Preservation Council (FPC) program. The FPC order directs commanders to “use engaged leadership and risk management guidance … to recognize and intervene early when stressors and potentially risky behaviors first develop in Service members in order to interrupt the chain of events that can lead to an adverse outcome.”2 Unfortunately, the Defense Suicide Prevention Office’s 2020 Annual Suicide Report shows that the Marine Corps’ suicide rate has increased on average since at least 2014, with suicide rates in 2020 being the highest ever recorded in the wake of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.3 This trend suggests that the Marine Corps will continue to battle with and for the mental health of its Marines well into the future, which poses significant challenges to the future force’s ability to remain ready to respond to our Nation’s calling.

Despite the Marine Corps’ good intentions, the FPC program in its initial form was riddled with flaws. One of its primary problems occurred when losing and gaining commands often failed to exchange information on Marines’ past and potential struggles. When they did exchange this information, it was often through informal, non-secure means. Although the Marine Corps FPC Order (MCO 1500.60) required losing commands to “ensure the gaining command is provided the necessary and relevant force preservation information,” there were no mechanisms by which to hold units accountable for failing to comply with policy.4 Such a lack of standardization and security meant that commanders rarely received all the information needed to contextualize Marines’ behaviors and issues and that Marines’ personal data was often put at risk through the unnecessary use of PowerPoints and other informal dissemination mechanisms.

In August 2020, the Marine Corps sought to resolve these issues by adopting the Command Individual Risk and Resiliency Assessment System (CIRRAS), which is essentially a standardized database for FPC data.5 Although certainly an improvement upon the legacy FPC process, CIRRAS will sell the Marine Corps short if it remains only a tool for data storage. Indeed, CIRRAS presents a unique opportunity for the Marine Corps to experiment with using artificial intelligence—and more specifically machine learning—to combat the threat of suicide within its ranks. The Marine Corps should examine the efficacy of using the CIRRAS database in conjunction with supervised classification machine-learning algorithms to help commanders better identify Marines who are most at risk for self-harm.

What is CIRRAS?
CIRRAS is a secure application developed by Marine Corps Systems Command that standardizes the FPC program across the Marine Corps, giving commanders the ability to monitor their Marines’ holistic health and combat readiness.6 It allows commanders and their representatives to input and track the various stressors that Marines regularly experience, including information regarding mental health, relationship disputes, alcohol- and drug-related offenses, and other significant issues that could impact operational readiness.7 Though it offers a new, more secure way of storing and transferring sensitive data about Marines, CIRRAS does not make any fundamental changes to the FPC program.

Although CIRRAS offers the means to standardize and secure Marines’ holistic health information, it does not seem to offer any additional analytical advantage to commanders. In other words, CIRRAS improves commanders’ abilities to securely communicate raw data, but it does not use that data to provide valuable insights to make better decisions.

The primary purpose of collecting standardized data in any capacity is to detect trends and patterns to better inform decision making. Human minds are very good at detecting simple, linear trends in two or three dimensions, but are very limited in their capacity to detect complex, non-linear trends, which can be common in multidimensional datasets such as those involving personal health information.

Machine Learning
Machine-learning algorithms happen to be especially adept at identifying complex, non-linear trends in vast amounts of data. They can take datasets on the scale of thousands of dimensions, identify their most important factors, and detect patterns that no human brain could hope to understand or recognize. These algorithms are regularly used in the private sector to determine which Netflix shows would best suit you, which songs you will most likely enjoy on Spotify, and which products you should next consider purchasing on Amazon.

At its most basic level, machine learning is using past data and consequent outcomes to identify complex patterns, generate models from those patterns, and then combine those models with future input data to quickly deliver predictions of future outputs. The machine-learning algorithms used by tech companies take the data you and others give them, such as browsing activity and personal information, to detect patterns and build statistical models that can quickly calculate high-probability outcomes.

By centralizing and standardizing FPC data in a single database, the Marine Corps has created a venue through which it could use machine-learning algorithms to identify under-the-surface trends common among Marines who have expressed suicidal or other life-threatening tendencies. If provided with the right types of data, these algorithms could prove useful in providing commanders indications of Marines who are more likely to engage in self-threatening behavior.

Among the many different types of machine-learning algorithms, the most useful for the purposes of predicting future behavior are classification prediction algorithms. These types of algorithms are trained to predict specific categorical outcomes (green/yellow/red), and not numerical ones (1, 2, 3). Among the most popular types of classification prediction algorithms are decision trees, random forests, k-nearest neighbor classifiers, logistic regression, and support vector machines. The Marine Corps should experiment with these types of algorithms to determine whether any of them can effectively predict Marine behavior.

Issues and Requirements
Using machine learning to make impactful decisions in Marines’ lives obviously presents several potential problems. The data science and tech worlds are alight with debate over the moral and ethical use of machine-learning algorithms with others’ personal information. Moreover, no model or algorithm is perfect and, if not properly understood, can result in unfounded dependence on “the numbers” and remove commanders’ responsibility to use their judgment.

First, one should note that no model is infallible. Models are abstract representations of reality and are optimized to represent historical data. They are susceptible to developing a narrow focus and will always produce some measure of error. No model or algorithm can perfectly describe previous forms of reality nor perfectly predict future ones.

Because of this, commanders using mathematical models to make decisions must remember that such models are tools designed to supplement decision making and should never replace well-informed human leadership and judgment. It seems too often that we settle for reducing complicated situations into PowerPoint slides with boxes colored green, yellow, or red. No Marine’s personal situation can be adequately captured by a simple color, and we should be wary of similar behavior when using other models to predict which Marines are most susceptible to suicidal behavior. Instead, commanders should use such tools to identify who they should be spending more time observing.

All prediction algorithms produce false positives and false negatives. The Marine Corps must avoid a zero-tolerance approach when it comes to using machine learning and artificial intelligence of all types. Tools that use such technologies are designed to inform better and faster decisions but are never intended to generate decisions in lieu of humans.

Garbage in, garbage out is a common saying among data scientists. Because machine-learning algorithms live on the data that they are given, poor data quality can easily result in models which fail to adequately reflect reality. Leaders responsible for inputting data into CIRRAS must do so properly. The notion of no data in is also worthy of consideration. Given that prediction of at-risk Marines is the ultimate goal, a lack of data on risk factors means some Marines could slip through the cracks.

Data used in machine learning must also be computable, meaning that it should be standard throughout the dataset (think multiple choice responses or numerical data with common formatting). Supervised classification learning algorithms work by identifying which characteristics were most prevalent among Marines who expressed self-harming inclinations, generating a model by appropriately weighing each of those characteristics based on their correlation with the outcome, and then applying that model to other Marines as needed. To make this work, however, these algorithms require standard data values, especially for the metric in question, which in this instance is whether a Marine has demonstrated a predisposition for self-harm. Machine-learning algorithms cannot easily interpret free-response data without additional processing, which often involves manual interaction. CIRRAS must provide standard datasets to generate effective models.

Not all models work well and there is no guarantee that these models will provide any value at all. It is very possible that none of the models listed would be able to accurately predict which Marines are most susceptible to self-harm, and in doing so could add unnecessary noise to an already-complicated FPC system. If, however, these models can generate correct predictions even as low as 50 percent of the time, they could prove very valuable to commanders.

Conclusion
In recent years, Marine Corps dialogue has become consumed with some of the Nation’s favorite tech buzzwords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data, and the like. Nevertheless, we have yet to find ways to implement these at scale in the same way multi-billion-dollar corporations have been doing for years. There is little question that we should be researching and experimenting with means to harness the power of these technological advancements. In reality, however, reluctance to adapt quickly and try new things at middle and lower echelons demonstrates that research in these fields may not truly be a top priority.

Exploring the use of machine learning in conjunction with CIRRAS’ database offers an easy opportunity for the Marine Corps to showcase its long-held reputation as the Nation’s most innovative force. Further research on this topic may prompt widespread use of this technology and could prove valuable to commanders by quickly providing automated actionable data in one of the Pentagon’s top challenges: service member mental health. If our people are truly our greatest strength, then we should leverage every advantage, technological or otherwise, to their benefit and that of the Naval Service.


Notes

1. U.S. Department of Veteran’s Affairs, 2020 Veteran Suicide Prevention Annual Report (Washington, DC: 2020).

2. Headquarters Marine Corps, MCO 1500.60 Force Preservation Council (Washington, DC: August 2016).

3. Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, U.S. Department of Defense, Calendar Year 2020 Annual Suicide Report (Washington, DC: 2020).

4. Stephen Losey, “Military Deaths by Suicide Jumped 25% at End of 2020,” Military.com, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/04/05/military-deaths-suicide-jumped-25-end-of-2020.html; and MCO 1500.60 Force Preservation Council.

5. Headquarters Marine Corps, “Announcement and Implementation of the Command Individual Risk and Resiliency Assessment System (CIRRAS),” Marines, August 12, 2020, https://www.marines.mil/News/Messages/Messages-Display/Article/2310545/announcement-and-implementation-of-the-command-individual-risk-and-resiliency-a.

6. Marine Corps Systems Command, “Marine Corps Develops Secure App to Monitor Holistic Health and Combat Readiness of Marines,” Marines, February 11, 2021, https://www.marines.mil/News/News-Display/Article/2500948/marine-corps-develops-secure-app-to-monitor-holistic-health-and-combat-readiness.

7. Ibid.

Dissent

A lecture to the Marine Corps Command and Staff College

Image
Dr. Kohn is the co-editor with Peter D. Feaver of Soldiers and Civilians: The Civil-Military Gap and American National Security (BCSIA Studies in International Security) 2d Edition, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001. ISBN 978-0262561426.
>Dr. Kohn is a Professor Emeritus of History and Peace, War, and Defense at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He was Chief of Air Force History for the Air Force at the Pentagon, 1981–199l. This article is a revised and updated version of a lecture to the Marine Corps Command and Staff College in May 2022.

Thanks, LtCol Anthony, for that kind introduction. It’s a pleasure and an honor to speak to the College class, and my thanks for this opportunity. I must note special appreciation to your Dean, Dr. Jonathan Phillips, whom I have known and appreciated for nearly 30 years, from his time in the UNC PhD program in history: one of the finest teachers and most honest, careful, and insightful scholars in my experience. And a personal friend whose advice, on professional issues as well as on what sailboat and bicycles to buy—two items of his special expertise.

In discussing dissent, we are not talking about simply disagreeing; we all disagree about many things, and frequently.1 After all, we are Americans, at least most of you in this audience. Nor is dissent insubordination or disobeying orders, although dissent can lead to such. Dissent is not about defying or disobeying lawful orders.

Where dissent differs from simple disagreement is that dissent implies disagreement with the majority opinion or judgment, with a consensus, or with established authority, or with traditional and commonly accepted institutional norms, or even orders. Fundamentally, dissent is simply thought. Sometimes, with certain people, it can be an attitude. But in your readings and in the common parlance today in civilian society and within the military, both in general and in the Marine Corps in particular, where it has something of a long tradition all the way back to Smedley Butler and Evans Carlson in the 1920s and 1930s, and after, it is accompanied by the voicing of disagreement in private or even publicly—in other words, expressing a contrary opinion. Not remaining silent. And another part of the definition is that dissent implies acting at the risk of self-interest, personal or professional, or both, and thus that it requires some courage. Risking the personal self-interest of a relationship with a boss, or peers or simply professional self-interest in promotion or reputation. As officers, you know and possess physical courage; dissent is something different, something we might call moral courage. We all know, and are educated to, or to be capable of understanding, right from wrong, and have the training, experience, education, or ability in any given situation to figure out what is a proper course of action, or ought to be, even if one is not aware of all the facts, have all the necessary information, the wider perspectives, and necessities that people at higher levels might have.

Every profession or trade expects dissent. Lawyers, doctors, professors, clergy, business executives, supervisors in factories, carpenters, electricians, social workers, nurses, and the like face, on a regular basis, problems that involve discussion with peers, supervisors, subordinates as to how to accomplish a task or solve a problem. We are a practical, pragmatic, problem-solving people and our culture thrives on differing perspectives and ideas. It is built into our culture. Our politics is infused with dissent. One of our norms—respect for alternative viewpoints—is indispensable, although it seems, unfortunately, to have declined. The country was founded on dissent from British policy, laws, and institutions; our religious traditions from earliest times involved dissenting—splits in established churches and even migration, from Roger Williams leaving Puritan Massachusetts to the Mormons leaving upstate New York and Illinois and settling in the Mountain West—and many of you know that earliest Mormon settlements had their own dissenters and breakaway groups.

Think of countries that do not permit, or do not value, dissent that arises from freedom of thought and expression. Their governments are autocracies, arbitrary, capable of terrible mistakes—such as Russia has committed in invading Ukraine—and the militaries of such governments are less flexible, more corrupt. Businesses across the world, in all societies, that are top-down and do not encourage independent thinking and open discussion often waste money, choose wrongly, misjudge the market or the popularity or appropriateness of their products, and flounder.

In the armed forces, where lives can be on the line and the country’s security or even existence can be at stake, dissent seems to me as important as in any walk of life, simply because of the stakes in military service. It seems to me that dissent is not only a moral and ethical imperative, but an obligation. Think of it at the personal level. If you witness a mistake about to be made, a decision that will lead in your judgment to unnecessary death and destruction, to counterproductive results, to self-defeating consequences, do you not have the obligation to raise questions? To stand by without asking for explanation or clarification, or further discussion, can be something of a dereliction … not serving the mission, your superior, or the people for whom you are responsible, very well or even perhaps adequately.

On the other side, in command of others, would you not want your people to express their views, give you the benefit of their experience, knowledge, and judgment in the process of deciding a course of action—if not whether to act, how to act, what are the alternatives and the risks. It seems to me that every supervisor needs to encourage subordinates to make their views known in some way or in some venue, to know that they are heard and considered, that the boss is open to ideas and thoughts that might be out of the box or unpopular. That there will be no penalty for disagreeing with the boss. You must be careful not to intimidate your people into silence. At the beginning of his tenure, as the legendary Army Chief of Staff during World War II, George C. Marshall, reputably told his immediate staff that they were not doing their job. The staff was surprised, some even shocked, and they asked for an explanation. Marshall told them that they had been working with him for a week and not one of them had disagreed with him.2

At least this is the theory of dissent and leadership. I have made it sound simple, cut and dried, no problem. But we all know that the devil is in the details. The realities, as many of you know and probably have experienced, is that dissent is always situational. That is, it depends on a number of factors, and on the circumstances.

First, the situation, the context. Is it at the tactical level, as a junior officer, or higher, at the operational level, or even higher in a geographic combatant command or in Washington or the strategic level? Is it in the field, in combat, in a unit engaged, or at a command post or headquarters, or on a staff, at home or abroad? Is there time to dissent, to discuss? Does it involve allied forces or is it all Americans? If the latter, are other Services involved, or civilians, or local populations and civilians, local leaders or institutions or partners? Is it about a policy or its implementation, say the rules of engagement, established recently or further in the past, by your command, at a close level above you or in Washington far away? Does the dilemma involve a decision or its execution? Is there time to discuss or debate the policy, decision, order, or action? Are lives at stake? Is accomplishing the mission at stake?

In other words, how important is the issue? How consequential, and is the officer in a position, because of experience, knowledge, information, and the like, to make that determination accurately? All of this requires judgment and sensitivity, acute observation, and considerable thought.

Additionally, the people involved in a situation are a crucial consideration. One has to gauge the situation, and how often to dissent. With your peers, it seems easier to dissent. To your superiors, more difficult.

And then there is the problem of how to express dissent. Speaking up, in private or within an organization or up the chain of command, but not out to the public or people who will make your views public seems to me more problematic. That is, you can speak privately one on one, or in a small group with people you know and where there has already, through personal knowledge or time together, a bond of respect and trust. Perhaps a contrary view is best offered in private, with carefully crafted language. One has to read not only the boss, but the context, and one has to make clear, always, that you are subordinate, not just in words but also in tone, body language, and understanding of the issue and the person in charge.

When I worked in the Pentagon in the 1980s, there was a saying, “that it is better to ask forgiveness than permission.” Think about that. Like all aphorisms, it can be untrue or even dangerous. My father, a canny Illinois lawyer with a likeness of Abraham Lincoln on his office wall, loved aphorisms. One he often expressed was in my judgment wrong: “You’re never sorry for what you don’t say.” Well, I disagree with that, particularly on the subject of dissent, as I will explain in a moment. On another aphorism, he was dead right: “Don’t be so open-minded that your brains fall out.” The points are these: what counts are the situation, the circumstances, the importance of the problem, the people one is trying to reach, to engage, to influence, and more.

But if dissent is a moral and a professional obligation, one with personal and professional risks, in a discussion with important consequences, and an officer who disagrees and remains silent: has he or she fulfilled the duty to his or her subordinates and the loyalty to superiors? It is a ticklish question, an important question, but also one that should not be paralyzing either in the abstract, as a matter of theory, or particularly troubling in the everyday carrying out of your duties. It is simply a part of your profession, as it is with all of the professions, with life in general. When to speak up, when to remain silent. Do not make a big deal of it, or think about it all the time, making it a defining element of your officer-ship and relationships with your contemporaries and superiors. It is just a natural part of officer-ship in a professional military service. As one retired four-star admiral said to me recently, “All of us carry out orders we disagree with, occasionally and sometimes often.”3

George C. Marshall was particularly candid about the necessity for choice. He established an independent and candid relationship with Franklin Roosevelt when, newly promoted and appointed Assistant Chief of Staff of the Army in the late 1930s, in a meeting the President made his own views clear and went around the room asking those present if they agreed. All did until Marshall, who told Roosevelt that he most definitely did not agree and why. People there told Marshall his career was over, but Roosevelt respected Marshall’s bravery and honesty, and in 1939 appointed him Chief of Staff over several other higher-ranking people. And for the next six years, when dealing with Roosevelt and with Congress, the general admitted after the war that he always saved voicing his dissents for the most meaningful, important, consequential problems or issues, and let the unimportant pass without offering contrary views, lest he forfeit his credibility or influence with these politicians on matters he considered crucial. “I never haggled with the President,” Marshall remembered. “I swallowed the little things so that I could go to bat on the big ones. I never handled a matter apologetically and I was never contentious.”4

A good example of the necessity for silence occurred at an Army Air Forces base in North Africa in 1943. Years ago in discussion with two retired generals, both four stars, the mission to take out the Axis oil refineries at Ploesti in Rumania came up. Then Col Jacob Smart, a member of the chief of Army Air Forces colonels group at Headquarters in the Pentagon, said he thought up the idea of a low-level bombing mission to avoid the fighters and flak. Hap Arnold, the Army Air Forces chief, accepted the risk and told Smart that since he came up with the idea, he should go over to North Africa and sell it to the crews that would have to fly it. Leon Johnson, the other general, then a colonel and group commander, told Smart and me that he knew the attackers would be shot to pieces and the mission likely would fail—and it did—and Johnson won the Medal of Honor for his bravery and leadership. I asked him why, if he thought it would fail, why did he not refuse to fly the mission or object to it? He was dumbfounded. In the middle of World War II, against a murderous enemy in an existential world war, it never occurred to him to refuse the mission. As far as I know, he did not dissent; to do so, in retrospect, might have unhinged his unit.

I would be particularly careful not to confuse dissent with disobedience and even insubordination, at the various levels of combat and command, as in the reading by Andrew Milburn. He cites personal instances when he disobeyed or violated orders. But every example is from the tactical or operational level, the example of the Prussian officer and king. Milburn avoids the strategic level and above, as when, in an essay over a decade ago, he cited Douglas MacArthur in Korea as an example to be followed.This was and is nonsense; MacArthur was guilty of insubordination and disobedience at the policy, strategy, and presidential levels. The necessity for civilian control of the military, so pervasive in the U.S. Constitution and so foundational to the American government, admits of no disobedience. Officers can dissent in discussions with civilian superiors, but in private, speaking up but not out (i.e. to the press or the public), and even in testimony to Congress, senior officers must be extraordinarily careful in discussing their advice to the most senior civilian officials.

As the field officer, and throughout the military in many and perhaps most situations at the tactical and operational level of war, there is the expectation that officers have the discretion to adjust their orders and their decisions, if necessary, to implement the commander’s intent. The Armed Services seem in the last generation to try to locate decisions at the lowest level where commanders on the ground are likely to have the best knowledge to judge what needs to be done to accomplish that intent. Officers must navigate uncertainty and risk, not just in battle, staff work, or in deciding when it is imperative to dissent, to speak up. When it comes down to it, moral courage and physical courage come out of the same wellspring of character and judgment.

One other example. There may be times when orders can be disobeyed and perhaps should be. On a trip to Vietnam some ten years ago, the group I was with visited tunnels used by the Viet Cong near a town northeast of Saigon. One member of our group told us that, as an Air Force major near the end of the war, he had been a forward air controller marking enemy targets on the ground. When an order came through to vector an attack on a certain village because a South Vietnamese brigade was taking fire from it, he refused—twice. He told his superiors that he had flown over it many times, never taking fire, that if the South Vietnamese brigade was being fired upon, it should assault and take the town, not level it and kill all its innocent civilians. The major was accused of insubordination, taken off flying duty, and hauled before the four-star commander of U.S. air forces in Vietnam. His superiors presented the situation to the four-star. Legal orders; clear situation; twice ordered, threatened, consequences made clear. At the hearing, the major explained why he refused the orders to mark the town for destruction. Gen John Vogt, the commander—a distinguished officer, a fighter ace from World War II—then cleared the room and asked the major again, what happened and why. Same story. Vogt pondered, then told the major to return to his unit, that he would be put back on flying duty, and the incident was closed.

Now another commander might have thrown the book at the major. The man had made a moral and professional decision not to kill in his mind innocent people because the South Vietnamese brigade commander did not want to risk his own casualties in a ground assault. You make up your own minds. Was this moral courage? The right choice?

Command at any level is not a popularity contest, even if officer evaluations are being done with 360-degree inputs. Situations are often unclear, information lacking, choices difficult. Just as command is filled with uncertainty, so too is the need and appropriateness for dissent. Officers are often forced to “lead from the middle,” that is to help their superiors get through ambivalent choices, advocate and argue for a course of action that runs against the thinking of a group. Or, as is more often the case, take a decision or order that is disagreeable or that even appears wrong to one’s subordinates, and make the best of it. As one former Marine officer said a few years ago, when at a conference on wars of choice, when asked how one leads people in battle when they think the war is wrong and they oppose it: he answered that he always did everything in his power to accomplish his mission with the least harm to the people under his command and to the Iraqis involved in the action.

There are times when one has to speak truth to power, but as Marshall understood, you cannot do it all the time or you become a nag and a problem. As you rise in rank and responsibility, you will learn the instinct to assess the audience and the situation. Do not take counsel of your fears any more than you do in combat situations. One Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who had to deal with a most difficult, frequently abusive, dismissive, and yet indecisive Secretary of Defense, told me that he always wanted the Secretary to be glad when he, the chairman, came into the room, knowing that he needed to be listened to. That it was essential to tell the Secretary what he needed to know even if he did not want to hear it. Marshall said essentially the same, in dealing with FDR: pick spots, save dissent, or unpleasant truth for what really mattered.

Let me close with one more thought. The Marine Corps is going through a set of dramatic changes as we speak. The law of averages tells me that some of them, hopefully, a tiny, tiny few, may be wrong or need adjustment or modification or whatever. This means that Marines at every level must be even more willing to dissent than in “normal” times, lest a mistake from the top—or near it—cause difficulties, even inefficiencies or deaths, that otherwise could be avoided. You who are not Marines in this audience should also take notice, and be prepared to dissent equally. I know the other Services face great challenges brought on by technology—to name only a few, cyber and drones, artificial intelligence, uninhabited ships and planes and vehicles—and a rapidly changing, and threatening, international situation. Not to speak of funding limitations, of changes in our alliances, and in leadership, all of which reverberate downrange. Be prepared for such; be attuned to the contributions you can make not by going along to get along, but by contributing your experience and expertise, reading widely and thinking critically, and dissenting when it is called for, and it can be helpful. Your Service and the country will be the better for it.


Notes

1. As a verb, the Oxford English Dictionary defines “dissent” as “to differ in sentiment … To withhold assent or consent from a proposal, etc.; not to assent; to disagree with or object to an action … To think differently.” The Compact Edition of the Oxford English Dictionary, s.v. “Dissent.”

2. Marshall and his staff at the beginning of his tenure.

3. Conversation in 2021, repeated in the fall of 2022 in Durham, NC. The Admiral had been a COCOM commander and after retirement, a senior civilian reporting directly to the President.

4. Quoted in Forrest C. Pogue, George C. Marshall: Ordeal and Hope, 1939–1942 (New York: The Viking Press, 1965); and Forrest C. Pogue, George C. Marshall: Education of a General (New York: The Viking Press, 1963).

5. Andrew Milburn, “When Not to Obey Orders,” War on the Rocks, July 8, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/07/when-not-to-obey-orders; Thomas E. Ricks, “Richard Kohn Fires a Warning Flare about a Joint Forces Quarterly Article,” FP, September 29, 2010, https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/09/29/richard-kohn-fires-a-warning-flare-about-a-joint-force-quarterly-article; Andrew R. Milburn, “Breaking Ranks: Dissent and the Military Professional,” Joint Force Quarterly 59 (4th Quarter 2010).

Marines Awaiting Training

Using time wisely for professional development

>Col Tiger is an F/A-18 Pilot and the Commanding Officer of Marine Aviation Training Support Group 22 in Corpus Christi, TX.
>>1stLt Grier is a Villanova University graduate and is awaiting jet training in Kingsville, TX.
>>>2ndLt Appel is a Naval Academy graduate and a prior-service Nuclear Electricians Mate. She is awaiting primary flight training in Corpus Christi, TX.

Marines Awaiting Training
In naval aviation, there is a fictional character named Grandpa Pettibone. Borne out of desperation in World War II, this grumpy old codger would impart aviation knowledge to his readers with cartoon drawings and sarcastic humor in a desperate attempt to reduce flying accidents.Every naval aviator since 1942 has learned some vital lesson from the cantankerous, pithy, and humorous old Grandpa Pettibone.2

If Gramps saddled up with his cane and book o’ knowledge to tour our training bases, he would probably say, “Jumpin’ Jehoshaphat Devildogs! Why aren’t your Marines awaiting training using this time wisely to further their professional development?”3

Commandant Berger would agree with Gramps. The Commandant’s five priority focus areas include force design, warfighting, education and training, core values, and command and leadership. Our Marines awaiting training focus on all five priority areas, with particular attention directed toward education and training.

From commissioning to winging as a fleet aviator, Marine student pilots can spend two years or more in a Marines Awaiting Training status. As Grandpa Pettibone says and the Commandant directs, this time must be used wisely. Marine Aviation Training Support Group 21 (MATSG-21) in Pensacola and MATSG-22 in Corpus Christi are developing unique, low-cost, low-overhead training events that intellectually develop Marines. Some of these events may also be useful to other commands with large student populations awaiting training.

Intellectual Development
The Marine Corps is a learning organization.Marine Corps Order 1553.4B states individual Marines are responsible for their own learning, and it is incumbent upon commanders to foster a culture of lifelong learning. This intellectual ability is cultivated through “active engagement with the brightest minds and the most challenging material, which forces Marines to contend with their assumptions, perceptions and concepts.”5

To foster a culture of lifelong learning, MATSG-22 executes a syllabus that teaches lieutenants to read critically, write articulate essays on their subject matter, and brief peers on the lessons derived from various works. Distilled from the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps War College syllabi, the MATSG syllabus focuses on both World Wars, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The final module focuses on military aviation history. Each module begins with a war college-produced lecture, available online and taught by resident experts that describe each war in detail. Students then read, write and think critically about lessons from the tactical, operational, and strategic levels of war.
The background students receive in reading, writing, and speaking critically about military history will support them throughout their careers. Confidence when briefing aviation operations as a captain, credibility with overseas partners as a major, historically based planning as a lieutenant colonel, and strategic-level depth and insight as a colonel are only some of the positive outcomes our students will achieve with their focus on critical reading, writing, and speaking.

To complement this intensive reading program, MATSG has experimented with critical thought workshops. Instructors and students recently participated in a two-week workshop in a live classroom setting with the Ground Truth Design Company, a private-industry program designed to equip leaders with tools, doctrine, and techniques to think critically and better solve complex problems. The initial results are promising.
Instructors and students were broken into five teams, each with a different problem to address. Using the techniques provided by the instructors, our teams set to work and contacted industry experts, general officers, and even one Congressional Staff who agreed to take our student’s proposal and incorporate their solutions into the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024. The success our students achieved exceeded all expectations in many cases. These lessons will serve our students well throughout their careers as they address complex problems in the Indo-Pacific region, Force Design implementation, naval integration, and more.

Tactical Training
To complement the intellectual development program, MATSG has implemented a three-tiered system that trains students in the tactical application of their profession.

Our primary tactical training period is called MATSG-22 University, focused strictly on flight training. This week-long course is taught by recent flight school graduates to those awaiting flight training. This course prepares students for the rigors of flight school using books, lectures, chalk-talk, and simulator events. The desired end state of MATSG-22 University is to reduce time-to-train while producing higher quality aviators outside the official period of instruction. As with the intellectual development program, this is a low-cost, low-overhead, repeatable event taught by peers under the supervision of fleet instructors. The course delivery method also demonstrates a transition from the industrial-aged model of learning towards a student-centered, 21st-century learning style supported by Training and Education Command.

Battlefield staff rides, museum visits, and case studies provide the second tier of tactical training evolutions. The Marine Corps Association produces excellent military case studies, ranging from Mogadishu to Guadalcanal to the Chosin Reservoir. Students are selected to lead various case studies, leveraging the Marine Corps Association’s pre-built case studies that describe the historical significance, tactical importance, and strategic implications of each battle. Each package includes detailed maps with the scheme of maneuver and terrain depicted with recommended articles, podcasts, videos, and books that complement the case study. Similar to the critical reading, writing, and speaking from the intellectual development module, students gain experience briefing and leading events among their peers, with guidance and structure provided by the instructor cadre.

The third tier of the tactical training module is Expeditionary Warfare School (EWS). Recently implemented and with direct assistance from the Commandant, Assistant Commandant, and Commanding Generals of Training and Education Command and Training Command, this program will aid students in completing their professional military education requirements while awaiting flight training. This program has enormous potential for newly winged aviators entering the fleet as senior first lieutenants and junior captains who must focus on the tactical employment of their aircraft while expeditiously completing their PME requirements prior to the promotion board. To compensate for each student’s lack of real-world experience in the course, the Expeditionary Warfare School instructor selected senior Marines to augment the class so that students can leverage their experience. This “hybrid” approach to Expeditionary Warfare School will serve aviators and the Marine Corps well.

Real-World Training
“We must elevate our standards and deliver a more capable Marine to the FMF, while also incentivizing and expanding MOS-specific development opportunities afforded throughout the Marine’s career.”MATSG-22 turned commander’s intent into action and sent students around the country and the world to support individual professional development while simultaneously supporting fleet commanders in accomplishing their mission.

One of the most anticipated events in MATSG’s arsenal to expand career developmental opportunities is the Weapons and Tactics Instructor Course, held semi-annually at Marine Aviation Weapons and Tactics Squadron One, in Arizona. Here, students gain an appreciation for graduate-level aviation employment as they observe flight line operations, live ordnance procedures, classified briefs and debriefs, realtime execution from secure facilities, and more. With great support from the MAWTS-1 Commander and his staff, and with proper risk-mitigation measures in place, this evolution is the most sought opportunity among all flight students awaiting training.

Other opportunities for temporary duty exist on a case-by-case basis. For example, a Japanese-speaking Marine flight student recently served as an interpreter for Marine Forces Japan, enhancing joint interoperability between U.S. and Japanese naval forces. MATSG routinely pairs flight students with fleet units who can effectively leverage and employ their unique skills. Fleet units in need of temporary and specific skills are encouraged to contact MATSG-21 and MATSG-22 who can properly vet its 450 students awaiting training to support your mission.

Lastly, MATSG-22 began a monthly program where flight students interact with the Joint Staff J-3 via the Secret video teleconference network. These classified briefings from some of the Pentagon’s resident experts provide valuable insight for young officers interested in European, Middle Eastern, and Asian operations. This interaction sparks students’ intellectual curiosity and provides a frame of reference for the world they are about to enter once they graduate from flight training.
It is important to note the tremendous support MATSG receives from senior leaders, MAWTS-1, the Joint Staff, Marine Aircraft Groups, the Marine Corps Association, and others that assist in mentoring, instructing, employing, empowering, motivating, coaching, and teaching young flight students awaiting training. Their efforts help develop a student’s intellectual curiosity and support critical thinking and builds the bench of future leaders needed to fight and win the Nation’s wars.

Conclusion
The Marine Corps requires leaders at all levels who can achieve intellectual overmatch against our adversaries.Names such as Alfred T. Mahan, U.S. Grant, John J. Pershing, George C. Marshall, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Chester Nimitz, John A. Lejeune, Matthew Ridgeway, O.P. Smith, and Colin Powell are noted for their ability to devise, implement and execute military operations at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. Today’s Marines must learn to do the same. MATSG-22 supports this endeavor with intellectual development exercises, tactical training evolutions, and real-world exposure events within a 21st-century learning construct. Grandpa Pettibone would be proud to know our young leaders are dedicated, disciplined, and focused on professional and intellectual development while awaiting flight training.

Using time wisely while Marines are awaiting training can present opportunities focused on the next phases of pilot training, leadership development, and lifelong learning. (Photo by 1stLt Pawel Puczko.)

Notes

1. CAPT Rosario Rausa, “Jumpin’ Josephat! 50 Years of Gramps” Naval Aviation News (Jan–Feb 1993).

2. Ibid.

3. Ibid.

4. Gen David H. Berger, Training & Education 2030 (Washington, DC: January 2023).

5. Ibid.

6. Ibid.

7. Ibid.

Tilting the Balance Toward Speed

Fielding cutting edge capabilities

>BGen Walsh is currently serving as the Commander of Marine Corps Systems Command.

“All of our analysis leads us unequivocally to the conclusion that the defense acquisition system has basic problems that must be corrected. These problems are deeply entrenched and have developed over several decades from an increasingly bureaucratic and overregulated process. As a result, all too many of our weapons systems cost too much, take too long to develop, and, by the time they are fielded, incorporate obsolete technology.”
—1986 Packard Commission Report

Never has the Demand for Faster Delivery of Capabilities Been Greater
Global competitors are developing and fielding capabilities that challenge our Nation’s competitive advantage. The advancement of near-peer adversaries, along with the tremendous pace at which technology is progressing, demands rapid modernization of our capabilities for the future operating environment. To contribute to the joint fight as a naval expeditionary force-in-readiness, we must be able to compete, deter, and facilitate escalation in an increasingly contested battlespace. Yet, despite the urgency of the geopolitical situation we face, the DOD has struggled to accelerate the fielding of cutting-edge technology to provide high-impact operational solutions for the warfighter.

There are Inherent Challenges to Acceleration
Our acquisition system (inclusive of our requirements and resourcing processes) has long been a source of tremendous frustration. It has been characterized as sluggish, rigid, inadaptable, and unresponsive. Even 37 years after the Packard Commission identified many of the issues that impede warfighting innovation, a pernicious set of underlying problems often prevent us from fielding fully capable equipment, with mature sustainment systems, in the time frame needed by our operational fleet. Too often, we take opposing sides: an exasperated fleet staunchly defending poorly defined, shifting requirements on one side versus a bureaucratic acquisition system mired in risk aversion and a culture of compliance on the other. Add in a multi-year planning, programming, budgeting, and execution (PPBE) process and a regulatory system optimized for oversight vice responsiveness, and our Marines are left wanting.

A great deal of work is being done to address the large, systemic issues. Congress has already granted additional authorities, such as the middle-tier of acquisition and the software acquisition pathway, that the DOD has incorporated in the adaptive acquisition framework and that the Marine Corps is already using. A congressional commission on PPBE reform and an Atlantic Council Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption will provide recommendations that may ultimately result in additional acceleration opportunities such as more rapid requirements validation for mature capabilities, broader capability-based budget line items, and adjusting reprogramming authorities to allow additional flexibility in the year of execution. But even in the current environment, there is a way to accelerate.

“Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.”
—Gen George Patton

We Can Go Faster by Balancing Risk, Tilting More Toward Schedule
One of the basic principles of project management is balancing the triple constraints of cost, time, and requirement scope. Optimizing for one inherently creates risk or compromise in another. Recognizing the deep-rooted friction that exists in the acquisition system, we can meet the challenge of accelerating capabilities to the fleet by tilting these constraints in favor of schedule, making well-informed trades, and accepting prudent risks in the other areas.

Program managers are incentivized to reduce financial risk. Programs are regularly measured against financial execution benchmarks and under-execution could mean a loss of program funds. Of course, it goes without saying that our acquisition professionals are bound to be good stewards of the taxpayers’ dollars. However, that does not necessarily mean the lowest cost or lowest financial risk. The taxpayers, and our Marines, need and want the best warfighting value for every dollar. That may mean paying a premium for more engineers to accelerate a design or moving engineers from a less critical program to accelerate a priority program. It could mean making an expensive capital investment to speed production or adopting a contract strategy that incentivizes industry to go faster, even if it increases the financial risk to the government. In a time of constrained resources, this will require close collaboration with resourcing organizations to make the necessary budgetary accommodations.

Our Marines deserve the very best, cutting-edge technology. That axiom, while appropriate and well-intentioned, often drives a dogged reluctance to accept any technical risk. This can manifest as high-end, unique requirements that may be unachievable without significant developmental efforts (i.e. time) or as a reluctance to field a system that satisfies 80 percent of requirements now as a minimum viable product with an executable plan for iterative maturation. In the acquisition community, this can take the form of extended test programs that seek to reduce uncertainty to a minuscule level, or application of strict specifications to uphold compliance, without critical thought to validate the warfighting applicability of those specifications. For the fleet, accelerated fielding may imply supply chain risk and reduced initial readiness as the industrial base builds to full capacity. Technical risk must be accepted thoughtfully, especially where safety and security are at stake. However, a well-informed collaboration can allow smart technical trades for the sake of getting the capability to our Marines as quickly as possible.

Enable Well-Informed, Collaborative Trades, Deferring to Users
Decisions such as these are made every day across the requirements and acquisition communities. Too often, those trades are made by well-intentioned stakeholders who may not have full visibility of second-order effects or the correct perspective to appropriately weigh considerations. The key to acceleration is to enable fully informed trades, at the right level, deferring the final vote to those that will have to live with the results of those trades—the operational Marines.

Close, transparent collaboration between designers and developers, resource managers, program managers, acquisition professionals, users, and requirements owners throughout the entire process is essential to fully inform and define the decision space for the ultimate decision authority. Tilting the constraint equation toward schedule will require trust and a yes, if approach by all stakeholders.

For our acquisition corps, this will mean pushing back against the compliance culture—reducing bureaucracy, documents, and reviews by understanding what is truly essential to delivering capability and tailoring out those that are obsolete, redundant, or unnecessary. There will be resistance from those who own the processes that have been abridged. Avoid the temptation to acquiesce to this risk aversion—know where boundaries are and why, push through toward them, and when you get there, elevate your best assessment of the risks and opportunities of pushing beyond. Do not take a no from someone who cannot give you a yes. Reject the attitudes of the guardians of sacred specifications or processes. In execution, embrace experimentation and prototyping. Put early iterations in the hands of Marines to gain feedback and use all available authorities to optimize acquisition and contracting strategies to incentivize industry for speed and agility to incorporate that feedback. Do not go so far as to become a cheerleader for your program but embrace our role as the truth-tellers who can present operators with the information they need to make well-informed decisions to enable speed.

For resource managers, embrace funding strategies consistent with risk-based acquisition decisions. Help defend these strategies during the planning, programming, and budgeting processes. Advocate for greater flexibility in budget execution and partner with requirement owners and program managers to adjust resources when circumstances change.

For requirement owners and fleet users, resist the urge to demand satisfaction of all requirements in one big bang for fear of never fully achieving the desired capability in a resource-constrained, elongated traditional development program. Specify a minimum viable capability or product—the smallest product that provides usable warfighting capability—and plan for refinement of requirements and maturation of technology over time. Engage with developers early and define requirements collaboratively to ensure they’re achievable within the time and resources allocated. Be prepared to consider commercial or joint solutions that may save significant time but may not meet some of the niche requirements we sometimes levy as Marines. Recognize that there will be hard decisions about the prioritization of resources between many important programs.

Examples of these types of decisions are:

  • A partner’s tactical vehicle is already in production in large quantities (i.e. lower cost) and is available now, but does not meet the full fording requirement of the Marine Corps. A new development program will require tens of millions of dollars of development over several years to field a new fully compliant vehicle. Which vehicle does the Marine Corps buy?
  • A commercial UAS is available now, at a low cost, but does not meet all of the cybersecurity requirements of the Marine Corps. Does the Marine Corps buy that system or invest in a secure new development?
  • A new system has completed testing and meets all technical requirements. However, parts demand history is scant, and suppliers have not built robust supply chains to ensure the availability of parts. Does the Marine Corps field the system or wait until there is higher confidence that readiness can be maintained?
  • A program has verified by testing that a new system operates reliably and safely throughout 90 percent of its operational envelope. Clearing the remaining 10 percent will take an additional nine months of testing at a significant cost. Should the Marine Corps field the system with a restricted envelope, accept the risk of operating in the unknown region, or delay fielding until testing can clear the full envelope?

In reality, the choices are rarely that simple. There are multiple intertwined dependencies that must be considered. The key is to have the right stakeholders represented in the discussion. For senior leaders, actively encourage this collaborative approach. Reward creative problem-solving and measured risk-taking. Make time for you and your Marines to participate in this vital work. Send your best and brightest—a small cadre of acquisition Marines at Marine Corps Systems Command and Naval Air Systems Command, working closely with requirements Marines at Capabilities Development Directorate, are making tactical-level decisions with strategic impacts similar to these every day. In the spirit of talent management, invest in an acquisition corps and requirements community that you have confidence in to inform and adjudicate these trades.

While this approach will not address the larger, systemic PPBE and regulatory challenges, it does provide an avenue to move faster in the modernization of our Corps. Proactively engaging in well-informed trade-offs and risk management in favor of schedule will allow us to put new capabilities in the hands of our Marines more quickly than our traditional approach. The Nation’s ability to meet the demands of the global environment and the viability of the Marine Corps as an enabler to the Joint Force count on us.

“There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long-range risks of comfortable inaction.”
—John F. Kennedy

An artillery Marine maneuvers a Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) launcher which can provide Marine Stand-in Forces a proven capability to strike a naval target from more than 100 nautical miles. (Photo by Cpl Luke Cohen.)

The Infantry Marine Course

Supporting Force Design 2030 with enhanced infantry Marines

“Look at a man the way he is, and he only becomes worse, but look at him as if he were what he could be, then he becomes what he should be.”
—Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

1100 UTC/Zulu Time, 19:00 Local Time. Somewhere in the USINDOPACOM Area of Responsibility January 2032
The lights were back again. Slow-moving and just off the horizon, they flickered just beyond the frequent driving rain squalls that made everything worse. SSgt TJ Boyd swore under his breath. He was on day fourteen of an eventful two weeks on the island. Frankly, he was looking forward to extract. With a linkup grid already passed, he was a few hours away from beginning his squad’s displacement to a platoon rally point just off the beach. But the lights complicated things. SSgt Boyd’s well-tuned baseline told him they were too far out to be the local fishing fleet. Those guys normally stuck pretty close to the reef, and something about the back-and-forth course corrections bothered him—too precise, too deliberate. Timelines for extract were normally tight, and the small boat guys were touchy about reprogramming their unmanned surface drones. Especially this late in the process of callbacks to support a beach landing site (BLS). Boyd decided right then and there to get ahead of the problem and roll L-hour for extract by 24 hours. Pro-words were passed via a data transmission mirroring the local electronic spectrum, and an alternate BLS was selected to better support tidal forecasts for the following night. His company commander told him after the OPORD to trust his instincts and adjust the plan when needed, and he was going to do precisely that. But that was weeks ago in the well deck and way before the actual shooting started.

Boyd called over his assistant patrol leader, Sgt John Taylor, already busy putting together the final touches on route planning for the night. Boyd got him working on a new timeline and established a hasty priority information requirement for the Stalker extra lite on the integrated battalion collection plan. Forty-five minutes later, they caught a break in the weather and were running an offset reconnaissance approach on the problematic offshore lights. “What the hell is that thing?” Boyd wondered aloud. He suspected the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia, as he knew the enemy used non-combatants to skirt rules of engagement, screen, collect, and support targeting across the division’s battlespace. Moments later he identified myriad antennae bristling above the retrofitted fishing vessel, clearly illuminated on his handheld feed. Boyd’s suspicion was confirmed. Identified Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia presence in the area of operation was an identified commander’s critical information requirement and required a report to higher thereby breaking his squad’s communication window. A burst data transmission was discretely passed on battalion TAC relaying the updated enemy sit, complete with a recommended search zone offset around a hastily named area of interest. Boyd was not only worried about the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia ship but also what else might be lurking further offshore. Fortunately, that was the surface battalion composite warfare commander’s problem to solve. Boyd’s problem lay closer in, just inside the horizon to the platoon BLS.

Several overhead searches of the nearest extract site confirmed his fears. Two small boats approached Boyd’s location with what looked like an enemy reconnaissance team’s worth of dismounts. Boyd called in his team leaders and passed a hasty WARNO: prep two loitering munitions, complete pre-combat checks for a possible night ambush, heavy weapons load-out, and procure additional water. His team leaders moved out smartly to prepare for combat, which gave TJ a minute to think and complete his plan. They would act decisively, combine old techniques with new tactics, and destroy their enemies. Boyd produced a weathered waterproof notebook he had kept with him since his earliest days at entry-level training in Southern California. The notebook now served as his de-facto leadership handbook. Something about having his handwritten notes from years of experience was a comfort in the chaos of war. His memories drifted back to his experience at the School of Infantry as he flipped slowly through his debrief notes from ten years prior.

The Combat Instructors, MOS 0913, of the School of Infantry (SOI) deliver infantry Marines to the FMF who are ready to fight and win tonight. We believe these Marines will go on to serve as the more capable future squad leaders and platoon sergeants envisioned by Force Design 2030. While points of uncertainty remain in the Marine Corps’ effort to change, the 0913 works daily to develop tactical skills and decision making the future demands. We believe the skill of the infantry Marine will be called upon soon, with short to no notice, and likely while serving as part of a Marine Corps Stand-In-Force—all while under persistent enemy observation, threat, and detection. To develop tougher, more lethal grunts the Commandant directed Training Command to improve the process of building entry-level infantry Marines. The combat instructors of SOI believe we are achieving this end state and in the process developed an adult-learning model for training that is highly transferable across the Service. In writing this article, SOI hopes to describe many of these new methods of instruction that proved useful and effective in improving entry-level infantry training. A process that resulted in an improved instructor culture, which was a critical requirement to implement change. SOI is certain that the Marine Corps is beginning to make significant gains in its infantry capability, through a better-developed, tougher, and more realistic infantry training program. This article describes in greater detail, and to a wider audience, the enhanced entry-level infantry training conducted during the new fourteen-week Infantry Marine Course (IMC).

On 27 January 2021, Infantry Training Battalion completed in-processing for the first pilot class of IMC. Over the last 24 months, we have gone from piloting a course and continuous experimentation to an approved Marine Corps Program of Instruction (POI). The IMC POI resulted in a drastic improvement to entry-level training, yet in many ways, IMC re-established what many would consider traditional Marine Corps concepts. IMC stresses the importance of maneuver warfare philosophy, non-commissioned officer-led and developed training, tactical decision games, uncompromising physical standards, and a laser-like focus on practical application. These have become the new watchwords at SOI. As of January 2023, IMC is the only course offered for entry-level 0311s, 0331s, 0341s, and 0352s (weapons MOS Marines conduct an additional four weeks of training on machineguns, mortars, or anti-armor weapons at the Infantry Weapons Course or IWC).

As a first step in developing IMC, the Marine Corps embarked on a deliberate process to identify skills believed necessary in a future fight against a peer adversary. Through this process, the Marine Corps developed 39 infantry competencies required of every infantry Marine. Infantry competencies range from traditional skills such as employing the service rifle, patrolling, and land navigation to more subjective, whole Marine concepts skills including: “embodying the Marine Corps’ Warfighting Philosophy.” Through a process based on input from the three Marine divisions and our Service’s Training Command, a subset of twenty infantry competencies or behaviors were prioritized as a requirement for entry-level training. The twenty infantry behaviors selected became the foundation to develop the new IMC POI and the first pilot of the fourteen-week course.

IMC is built on an outcomes-based learning approach that implements 21st-century learning techniques. In a simple description, outcomes-based learning is a model that evaluates a Marine’s quantitative and qualitative ability on each of the 20x infantry behaviors. This model provides a wildly better ability to assess a Marine’s capability to perform individual and collective skills in a more realistic and dynamic combat environment. Outcomes-based learning is a recognition that just because somebody has passed the minimum requirements in a skill set, they by no means have achieved mastery. In the current unit training management construct, individuals and units are evaluated via a binary assessment of mastery or non-mastery, with no other options. This effectively leaves no room for recognizing and evaluating talent. How does a trainer compare a talented combat marksmanship coach’s shooting skills against a young Marine who barely qualified on the range? They have both passed the necessary shooting assessments with the service rifle and are equally good. We do both Marines a disservice by not accurately breaking out skill sets. The Marine who struggles does not get the training he needs and the Marine who excels is not recognized for exceptional performance.

Outcomes-based learning provides an opportunity to highlight the difference in a Marine’s learning. Each Marine’s skill in a particular behavior is graded on a scale. This scale is separated into five tiers we call skill acquisition levels (SALS): novice, advanced beginner, competent, proficient, and expert. A detailed grading rubric with highly quantifiable metrics and word picture descriptions aids the instructor in rating the SAL a Marine achieves for each behavior. Generally speaking, as SAL levels increase, Marines can perform each behavior with less supervision, execute the skill in more complicated and dynamic environments, and ultimately become teachers and experts. To graduate from IMC, each student must achieve the minimum SAL for all twenty infantry behaviors as depicted in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Marine Corps 20x entry-level infantry behaviors taught during IMC and their required skill acquisition levels. (Figure provided by author.)

Outcomes-based learning also calls for the continuous assessment of a student’s skill across all twenty infantry behaviors. In our old eight-week POI, Marines were given three opportunities to master a training and readiness task. Following evaluation, they were given pass/fail feedback on performance and were then never assessed on that skill again. Cramming for the test and moving on to the next event is a poor method for skill retention over time. During IMC, students are continuously evaluated, tracked, and counseled using a report card to identify, by behavior, a student’s strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities to improve. At the conclusion of the course, these report cards become a warm hand-off tool for Marines reporting to the FMF and are used to support talent management at the squad and platoon levels.

Figure 2. Example grading rubric for the Conduct Fire and Maneuver infantry behavior with defined skill acquisition levels. (Figure provided by author.)

IMC also improved the way instructors teach new infantry Marines. We based this process on an updated adult- learning model. Historically, end-of-course critiques and retention tests revealed a shockingly low return on large classroom instruction and specifically highlighted zero value in PowerPoint lectures. Marines at IMC now invest those training hours in small group interactions provided directly by their combat instructors, who serve as a training squad leader. Our classes are conducted in unit squad bays or directly in a field environment outside of a lecture hall. Ample time is afforded for questions from the students. Small group “class” instruction is always followed by extensive practical application and interaction with the material, equipment, and combat instructors. Student participation is an absolute requirement, and their buy-in and commitment to the process are extremely encouraging for the future of the Service.

Enhanced evaluation via SALs, an outcomes-based approach, and adult-learning techniques all provided a solid foundation to change the way we did business at ITB. However, to really achieve the end state of a better, more lethal entry-level infantry Marine, we needed to improve the instructor culture. We believed that entry-level infantry training methods required a complete overhaul. With this honest self-assessment, ITB moved from an instructor climate that presupposed every student was actively striving to fail, to a course anchored on the principle that every student has exceptional potential. Our students are Marines who raised their hand and volunteered to serve their country, and they should be treated, trained, and developed like adults. Specifically, they should be treated like members of a rifle squad in an FMF infantry battalion. Fostering this type of training environment required an update in the instructor-to-student relationship developed during an IMC class. We had to move instructors from the role of unapproachable passive observers to actively involved coaches, trainers, and mentors. The IMC combat instructor serves as the squad leader for fourteen weeks in a process that is highly similar to Marine officer training at The Basic School. The IMC squad leader billet is loosely fashioned on the new lieutenant, staff platoon commander dynamic for our entry-level officers.

The center of gravity of IMC is the small-unit leadership provided by the IMC squad leader. On training day one, fourteen students are assigned a seasoned combat instructor who will be their coach and mentor for the duration of the course. As the training program progresses in difficulty, these squad leaders shift roles from instructor to tactical leader of the squad. IMC squad leaders take their Marines through patrols, supported live-fire attacks, urban combat, and force-on-force exercises. This close relationship with a combat instructor allows students to develop a deeper understanding of what they are taught while receiving immediate, constructive feedback. Instructors build trust with their students in the process, fostering a highly accelerated learning environment. The squad leader now has time to ensure that every student becomes what they should be. Many of our squad leaders describe class graduations as a bittersweet event. Seeing their Marines complete the course and depart for the FMF leaves many instructors wanting to continue the onward journey with their students. All with the understanding that many of our students will begin a daunting training workup and follow-on deployment upon arrival at an infantry battalion.

IMC’s increased focus on the individual Marine comes at a cost, most notably in time and instructor manpower. IMC is an additional investment in a Marine’s initial training pipeline and a significant increase in combat instructor hours. The new course is not simply longer than our previous eight-week offering. IMC gets more out of our students over each training day across the longer fourteen-week program through a more efficient training schedule. To reduce time spent waiting around, ITB-W implemented a block scheduling process—similar to how a civilian high school might schedule classes. The block schedule is broken down by platoon to eliminate the phenomenon of the large 300-man class milling about smartly. Training is broken down into three platoons and across multiple topics to ensure students stay engaged with different kinds of material during an average training day. Instead of spending an entire ten-plus hour training block on marksmanship, IMC students receive smaller two- to three-hour blocks focused on different infantry behaviors. A typical training day might include blocks for swimming instruction, live-fire training, field craft skills, and radio programming. This approach to scheduling improves student retention by providing manageable amounts of information before students reach oversaturation. It also enhances student recall on demand by providing multiple, repeated, and increasingly complex touchpoints with all evaluated infantry skills. The block schedule, a spiraling approach or “non-linear pedagogy” in education speak, is a proven better way to learn as an adult. The skills trained in week one of the POI carry on through the end of the course and are assessed continuously.

IMC students also receive improved training by layering infantry behaviors together. For example, radio and land navigation behaviors are provided during the same training event. Tactical combat casualty care will occur during a patrolling exercise. Layering skills provide students who might struggle with specific topics multiple opportunities to demonstrate competency. This model accommodates students who have a different, often longer, learning process than others. These simple changes in course ideology and method are producing visible results in our students. Our initial feedback from the FMF highlights a tactically improved, more mature, decision-making infantry Marine.

Figure 3. Example IMC block schedule for one of three platoons in a training class. (Figure provided by author.)

Initial FMF feedback on IMC students highlights a stronger, more physically fit entry-level Marine. The development of IMC offers our Service a springboard toward establishing quantifiable standards for service as an infantry Marine, where previously very few existed. IMC requires a minimum fitness level to begin training, an absolute must considering the arduous nature of the course. Infantry Marines are now held to a much higher physical standard to graduate. Marines earning the 0311 infantry MOS will be required to achieve first-class scores on the Physical Fitness Test and Combat Fitness Test. They will also achieve a minimum swim qualification of Water Survival Intermediate and pass an evaluation on the Shallow Water Egress Trainer, which simulates procedures for evacuating a sinking aircraft. Several IMC graduates completed Water Survival Advanced during the course, the highest Marine Corps swim qualification. Student outcomes in SALs at IMC are not capped and exceptional performers are given the opportunity to exceed minimum requirements. Student physical graduation requirements also include a grueling weeklong warfighting exercise, a ten-kilometer combat endurance assessment, and completion of a 20km hike with a 75-pound fighting load.

To accomplish this litany of new and improved physical standards, ITB developed a more innovative physical training (PT) plan. PT cards, swim cards, and ruck training are designed under a progressive overload model, which builds up physical fitness beginning at boot camp and continues through IMC through increased weight, distance, and exercise repetitions. IMC class hikes are also conducted as an individual effort without a company structure to set the pace. Marines are thereby forced to participate, understand the route, and take care of their feet as part of the process. They can no longer blindly go internal during physical evaluations. In adding responsibility and freedom to loaded movements, hike times and failures have markedly decreased. All graduates from the course have exceeded the Marine Corps training and readiness standard for a forced march.

Swim training cards are broken out between beginner, intermediate, and advanced swimmers, which improves every student regardless of the skill level they bring to IMC. Our swim training has proven wildly effective in developing Marines who are more comfortable in the water and is not a one-size-fits-all workout program. Pool PT sessions provide the added benefit of de-loading wear and tear on joints. We hypothesize this is a factor in the limited overall injury rate for IMC students. Students also conduct an active recovery period once a week, which is spent stretching while their squad leader discusses whole-Marine-concept topics, including moral leadership, personal accountability, and resiliency. Our PT program is one element of a highly-integrated plan that we believe can help produce the more mature, better-thinking Marine that will be an asset on arrival to the fleet.

Decision making and maturity are areas where we believe IMC Marines can outpace our peer adversaries. One of the foremost complaints concerning young Marines arriving in the fleet is their inability to think for themselves. At ITB we believe new Marines often make questionable decisions because we have failed to provide them with opportunities to think and creatively solve problems. Previous entry-level Marines were conditioned, through a model of Industrial-Age education, to regurgitate facts on command without any thought given to circumstances or conditions. Marines were taught a specific solution to a specific situation rather than being able to critically assess a problem and develop a creative solution. This generated a mindset of learned helplessness. Even when options were available, Marines chose not to act. Individual Marines who can think and decide quickly have always been—and will remain—a force multiplier on the future battlefield. Faster decisions generate tempo by exercising speed overtime against our enemy. The initiative of IMC Marines to take appropriate action at their level can generate combat power. Their actions in training are integrated by an overarching commander’s intent, a concept introduced and continually reinforced during IMC. ITB also uses a constraints-led approach to instruction to maximize decision-making opportunities for students.

Specifically, a constraints-led approach to training provides a student with a problem, followed by the things they are not allowed to do. It then asks the student to solve the problem as they see fit, within the provided constraints. Our course does not tell the Marine exactly what they must do to solve a training problem. We surmise this is a more realistic approximation of actual combat. We tell them what is not allowed and make them use their own judgment to think within the bounds of safe training. The constraints-led approach develops student decision making, judgment, and maturity by forcing them to be problem solvers and applies to all skills layered across IMC. The combat instructor will always debrief the student’s solution to provide immediate, individualized feedback and solidify any learning points. Peers in the course observe training as well to accelerate their own learning and to provide peer coaching- a surprisingly important learning tool for Gen-Z Marines. By the end of the course, students make thousands of decisions and receive feedback for most of them from both combat instructors and peers, increasing the experiential basis for sound decision-making.

“As a lifetime serial learner, I have found that ordinary people can do the extraordinary who are committed to experiential learning, are intellectually curious, and possess an unquenchable desire to acquire new knowledge … this may be our only advantage in the future fight.”
—BGen Lorna M. Mahlock, MCDP 7, Learning

In the cognitive domain, we are developing an entry-level Marine steeped in initiative, creative in generating outside the box options, who has the maturity to assess first- second- and third-order effects, and is decisive enough to choose the best course of action. Building a Marine with this overall maturity and ability is a complex process and requires re-framing how students think. We currently focus the students on how their actions as individuals shape and impact the collective unit. The overarching method for accomplishing these tasks requires an approach to teaching and learning that emphasizes a safe operating space for students to make mistakes. Ultimately, the responsibility for the student’s success falls on the instructor and is achieved through close mentorship and teaching.

Learning experts generally agree that successful adult education occurs when students have a purpose for what they learn. IMC begins with a “Road to War” class that highlights peer adversary capabilities and geopolitical dynamics. We believe this reinforces why each infantry skill provided to IMC students is vital in a future fight. The Road to War class is immediately followed by a combat order for an amphibious assault. After receiving the task and purpose, students are asked to solve a problem in the form of a tactical decision game. While the students do not always provide a sound plan, this exercise forces them into a decision-making role and immediately sets a precedent. They will be required to think during IMC and must plan and execute actions based on their assessment of the situation. The students always discuss their plans with the squad leader, receiving personally tailored, constructive feedback.

Additionally, during IMC, we hold small group discussions on MCDP 1, Warfighting: the Marine Corp’s premier contribution to military doctrine. We believe it is essential that junior Marines develop a solid foundation in maneuver warfare and begin to internalize the countless leadership lessons contained in the pages of MCDP 1. Marines who graduate from IMC possess the motivation to seek information and the responsibility to hold themselves and their peers accountable. To further develop this personal responsibility, IMC students are given a base set of rules to operate on, known as the “Standing Orders of IMC”. The Standing Orders combine timeless principles like individual accountability, understanding task and purpose, weapons and field discipline, with new aspects of the current operating environment such as understanding your electronic signature. A daily warning order is posted each night to set the tone for every day of the course. This drives students to seek additional information and make initiative-based decisions as they participate and prepare for each training day.

While IMC is building a better decision maker, it also produces a significantly more lethal Marine. IMC graduates are trained to a significantly higher standard in rifle marksmanship. They are subject-matter experts and combat capable in all environments with the M27 Individual Automatic Rifle. They are also trained in the employment of medium machineguns, grenade launchers, anti-armor systems, and light mortars—all of which are new weapons skills for 0311s. Each squad conducts multiple non-illuminated, night squad-supported live-fire attacks. Students act as both the maneuver element and support by fire element on live-fire ranges. To develop a basic understanding of combined-arms techniques and battlespace geometry. These collective skills develop a next Marine up mindset and provide every student with a basic level of leadership experience. It also provides each student with the ability to pick up any company-level weapon system and become relevant in a firefight. By better training individual Marines, we sought to develop a course that would aid the infantry battalion operational tempo. By reducing the time required for new Marines to be ready to participate in collective and Service-level training events, we hope to provide battalions with a new ceiling of training opportunities and increased flexibility. Marines arriving at a unit do not require remedial training on basic skills. After receiving an update on specific unit standard operating procedures, Marines are ready for more complex collective live-fire training at the squad and platoon levels. The Marines are prepared and ready to be immediate impact players in a rifle company on their first day in the fleet.

The success of our students at IMC is also not limited to the schoolhouse. Lessons learned in the training environment are directly relevant to their experience at an FMF battalion. SOI improved this learning trajectory during a Marine’s first enlistment, through a squad-cohort shipping model. Graduating Marines arrive at their battalions in the same training squad. Marines now arrive as a cohesive team and are provided a warm handoff from their IMC squad leader to their gaining battalion. IMC squads that are kept together in these same training formations benefit from months of implicit communication, peer mentorship, and camaraderie. They are ready to receive NCO leaders and take training opportunities to the next level.

The Marine Corps continues to draw on a long history of innovation and experimentation. The Marines at SOI believe the daily work we do at IMC can help build momentum toward this ongoing effort to improve our Marine Corps. The combat instructor believes the enhanced skill required of these future infantry Marines is being developed today, time now, in the graduates of IMC. Providing this better infantry Marine is one way we can outpace our potential adversaries. While Force Design 2030 is an ongoing process and the Marine Corps has multiple decision points that may impact the future force, the IMC is uniquely positioned to adapt. Pending Service-level Force Design decisions may shape the requirement for what constitutes an entry-level infantry Marine. The IMC methods described in this article are well suited to this dynamic environment as they are flexible enough to support our Service as it continues to evolve and improve. We also believe the highlights in this article about infantry training are highly transportable across other areas of the MAGTF and we look forward to our small contribution to building the enhanced FMF of Force Design 2030. A fleet of Marines that will remain the Nation’s elite infantry community, ready for hidden challenges in an uncertain future. The 0913 is confident the watch is passed to a generation of young Marines who were highly successful in an exceptionally demanding course, and who have done things never asked of entry-level students. This group of IMC Marines possesses the potential for outsized impacts across the Marine Corps.

A Sample of Commendatory Feedback We Have Received from the FMF

  • 06 level commanding officer: Without question, there was a tangible improvement with their tactical acumen, physical fitness, and enhanced field skills. In fact, they outperformed many of their senior Lance Corporals that have been in the unit longer. Additionally, we had very few casualties throughout this training.
  • 06 level commanding officer: IMC graduates who struggle in the Fleet are a reflection of poor leadership … We changed leaders and the Marines’ performance took off.
  • 05 level commanding officer: Sustain survivability and field craft from setting up individual packs and equipment …They demonstrate a buy-in for part of the process as we evolve the infantry Marine and his training … Their bias for action and bias for leadership is noteworthy … They are critical of the training and critical thinkers on the range.
  • Battalion sergeant major: The IMC Marines have shown an increased ability to process information and tactically employ squad-based weapon systems. The IMC Marines have the ability to quickly rationalize the tasks at hand and complete evaluation checklists with minor corrections. The Companies have already begun incorporating IMC Marines into the Machine Gun sections. Their proficiency and understanding of employment considerations were viewed higher by leadership verse that of legacy Marines. The IMC Marines are more likely to apply input in the decision-making process. The legacy Marines have continuously been viewed as a standby for tasking and match intent type of mentality.
  • 81mm Mortar Platoon Commander: The new IMC Marines have a higher mental capacity to learn new weapon systems.
  • FMF Squad Leader: IMC Marines have initiative like they were born with it.
  • FMF Squad Leader: The lowest common denominator is now higher in my squad than it has ever been.

Warrior Philosophy

2022 Gen Robert E. Hogaboom Leadership Writing Contest: First Place

The case for stoic leadership

>Maj Swift is an Infantry Officer currently serving in Marine Corps Advisor Company A. He is an active member of the Warfighting Society.

“A gem cannot be polished without friction, nor a man perfected without trials.” -Seneca

On 9 September 1965, the commander of Carrier Air Group 16 flew what would be his last mission over North Vietnam. After striking his target, North Vietnamese anti-aircraft artillery engaged his A-4 Skyhawk. Within seconds, engines failed, power was lost, and the pilot ejected over North Vietnam, certain of a grim fate—suffering. Most Marine officers know where this story goes, but many more junior Marines and sailors are unfamiliar. Then-Navy CAPT James Stockdale’s epic journey as a warrior-philosopher who survived seven brutal years as a prisoner of war is a foundational tale in officer training and education. Stockdale’s epic is used to introduce officers to the importance of philosophical education as the foundation for effective leadership and resilience.

For over 200 years, the Corps has forged leaders. From Marine Corps Recruit Depot to Officer Candidate School, and the Crucible to the Quigley, the Corps has perfected the science of unleashing leadership potential. Enlisted and commissioned officers are taught to embrace uncertainty, operate with minimal guidance, and embody time-tested leadership traits and principles that allow them to lead in chaos. While these tools are appropriate for preparing leaders for war, they are insufficient in preparing leaders to face a new and growing crisis in peace.

The Nation’s youth are suffering, and so too are Marines. Existing leadership models are not enough to prepare leaders to mentor and coach the force through the growing rates of depression, anxiety, suicidality, and addiction that are now pervasive in American society. These struggles are especially acute in the generation of young Marines currently joining our ranks. While the Corps is not intended to rectify society’s ills, Gen Krulak did charge the Corps with returning the country’s youth better for their service.To counter these ills and build a more resilient and effective Corps, leaders should look to time time-tested philosophical approaches to address this new crisis. Fortunately, a tried-and-true warrior philosophy has existed for two millennia that can aid leaders in navigating these turbulent times. Stoicism, a philosophy developed by the ancient Greeks and Romans, provides a universal grounding philosophy upon which the Marine Corps’ ethos of Honor, Courage, and Commitment can firmly stand.

“It does not matter what you bear, but how you bear it.” -Seneca

The Crisis
Each month, more Marines join the long list of American warfighters lost to their own hand. Such self-inflicted casualties have become an unfortunate norm in the Corps and society at large. Through training, leaders may be able to identify indicators of suffering, but they are largely unable to pinpoint or address root causes. Social media and smartphone usage, declining religiosity, social isolation, and the civil-military cultural divide are often blamed. While these issues pervade American society at large, Marine leaders at all levels must address them daily. The statistics are sobering:

  • Nearly half of U.S. teens report using the Internet “almost constantly” and 95 percent of teens have access to a smartphone (up from 73 percent in 2015).2
  • Nineteen, sixteen, and fifteen percent of teens report using YouTube, TikTok, and Snapchat respectively “almost constantly.”3
  • Rates of Major Depressive Episodes (suicide ideations, attempts, and deaths) rose 52 percent from 2005 to 2017 (from 8.7 to 13.2 percent of 12–17-year-olds).4
  • 32 percent of teens and adolescents experience anxiety and depression from March 2020 to January 2022 (the cohort currently enlisting into the Corps).5
  • Deaths of despair (alcohol, suicide, and drug overdose deaths) from 2013–2019 among white non-Hispanics without a four-year college degree (the vast majority of the Corps) increased by 41, 17, and 73 percent, respectively.6
  • Despite a fifteen percent drop from 2020 to 2021, more than 500 Active Duty, Reserve, and National Guard suicides occur each year.7

While Marines are individuals who join the Service with their own unique characteristics, these statistics should be considered carefully. They paint a picture of the societal context from which Marines emerge, engage, and return at the end of their service. Through an understanding of the severity of the moment, leaders can fulfill Krulak’s leadership imperative of returning Marines as quality citizens. As a father guides a son, leaders can help their Marines and sailors navigate life’s turbulent waters by helping them develop a philosophical toolkit to serve as the foundation of personal growth and a fount of resilience.

“You have power over your mind—not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” -Marcus Aurelius

The Warrior Philosophy
Stoicism may seem to be in vogue to the casual observer. Promoted by popular philosophers like Ryan Holiday on social media (ironically)and included in Gen Mattis’ personal reading lists,Stoicism is an ancient philosophy that seeks to foster internal peace by divorcing individual emotion from external circumstances. Stoicism does not seek to answer the metaphysical questions often pondered by religion but instead focuses on the practical—how to find internal peace in a turbulent world.

While Stoicism is the subject of extensive study, there are many easily-accessible principles relevant to modern leaders seeking to help Marines navigate through life’s challenges. First, one’s primary concern should be to “live according to nature.” That is, live in such a way that is in harmony with, and accepting of, the natural world.10 Second, much as there is both rain and sunshine, some things in life are within one’s control while others are not. Third, peace and freedom can be found in understanding these realities and choosing not to suffer from conditions outside of one’s control. As Marcus Aurelius advises, “there is never any need … to trouble your soul about things you cannot control. These things are not asking to be judged by you. Leave them alone.”11 This emphasis on choice is the operative element of Stoic philosophy. Individual resilience can be forged when this choice is mentally rehearsed and combined with reflection, meditations on mortality, and confidence in one’s actions and acceptance of consequences.12

The applicability of this philosophical approach to life and leadership is recognized by many leaders but appears to escape many of the Corps’ junior members. Unlike the officers leading them, most junior servicemembers are never introduced to such practical philosophy upon which the traditional Marine Corps leadership traits and principles can be developed. Stoicism’s approach to dealing with life, be it personal or professional, equips individuals to observe, embrace, and endure life’s challenges. Stoicism teaches humility to accept fate, embrace trials, and grow from adversity. Stoicism, as Holiday writes, “provides much-needed strength, wisdom, and stamina.”13

Adopting Stoic Principles as Marine Leaders
Marine leaders can offer much to their Marines by applying Stoic philosophical principles while addressing contemporary leadership challenges. Leaders should consider the continued study of Stoic philosophy, sharing Stoicism with their Marines, and, like Marcus Aurelius, living as Stoic examples to the best of their ability.

1. Continued Study
Before leaders can share the timeless wisdom and practices of the ancients, leaders must seek to be studied and conversant in the language and foundations of history and philosophy. As a simple first step, Marine leaders should consider returning to the lessons they received during collegiate training as aspiring officers. The Stoic renaissance is in full swing and interested leaders can easily find newly published translations of the ancient Stoic texts or more modern interpretations of the philosophy.14 Another source of material can be found in ADM Stockdale’s writings. His biopic detailing his Prisoner of War experience Courage Under Fire and later reflections Thoughts of a Philosophical Fighter Pilot takes readers on his journey from stumbling across Stoicism as a graduate student, subsequent obsession, and utilization of Stoic principles while in captivity and beyond.15

2. Teach, Coach, and Mentor
There is an old saying that a parent’s role is to “prepare the child for the road, not the road for the child.”16 Herein lies each modern Marine leader’s challenge in such trying and chaotic times. After developing a foundational understanding of Stoic principles, leaders should share this with those who need it most—our junior enlisted Marines and sailors. Seneca embodies the example here. His Letters from a Stoic are exactly that–letters to a younger student in which he explains, extolls, and encourages Stoic perspective on life. Modern leaders should be encouraged to follow suit; organize professional military education sessions; provide chapters or sections of pertinent Stoic literature as reading assignments; challenge Marines to think, write, and reflect on the material; and discuss the philosophy often in public and private. In so doing, leaders can infuse Stoic thought into their organizations to foster individual and collective resilience.

3. Live It
Finally, leaders must be the embodiment of Stoic principles. Studies and discussions are meaningless without concrete actions. Suffering Marines and sailors need leaders as positive role models who demonstrate mental and emotional resilience. As Marcus Aurelius exhorts in Meditations, “waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one.” Leaders, it is time to be the “good men” our Marines need. Living out Stoic principles involves internal reflection and external behaviors. First, prioritize time to reflect on your leadership. Ask, how are you responding to external circumstances in your organization? Are you controlling what is yours, influencing what is possible, and accepting what you must? Reflect on your responsibility as a leader. Your position could be taken at any moment. This should generate gratitude and humility. Finally, seek to always behave with calm. Such composure will take time to develop but will create a culture of trust. If subordinates know how their leaders will react in any given situation, they will be more confident in their actions, measured in their risks, and forthright in communications.

Conclusion
On that fateful day in 1965, as ADM Stockdale ejected from his Skyhawk, he considered himself strangely fortunate. Unlike most pilots shot down over North Vietnam, he was, thanks to his extensive training in Stoic philosophy, Amor Fati—accepting of his fate. As he hung suspended under his parachute, looking down at the rice field below, he recalled thinking “‘five years down there, at least. I’m leaving the world of technology and entering the world of Epictetus.’”17 His imprisonment ended up as seven long years in the Hanoi Hilton, the notorious North Vietnamese prison in which Stockdale turned into a Stoic laboratory. Those seven years of torture, misery, pain, deceit, and suffering were made survivable and meaningful by a foundation of philosophical training. Modern Marines are suffering in their own unique ways today and Honor, Courage, and Commitment alone are simply not enough to “prepare them for the road.” Marine leaders can do much to forge the Stoic philosophical foundation upon which Marines can thrive.


Notes

1. Victor Krulak, First to Fight: An Inside View of the U.S. Marine Corps (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1999), Preface.

2. Emily Vogels, Risa Geller-Watnick, and Navid Massarat, “Teens, Social Media and Technology 2022,” Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech, August 10, 2022, https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2022/08/10/teens-social-media-and-technology-2022.

3. Ibid.

4. J.M. Twenge, T.E.Joiner, M.E. Duffy, A.B. Cooper, and S.G. Binau, “Age, Period, and Cohort Trends in Mood Disorder Indicators and Suicide Related Outcomes in a Nationally Representative Dataset, 2005–2017,” Journal of Abnormal Psychology 128, No. 3 (Summer 2019).

5. L. Harrison, B. Carducci, J.D. Klein, and Z.A. Bhutta, “Indirect Effects of Covid-19 on Child and Adolescent Mental Health: An Overview of Systematic Reviews,” BMJ Global Health, December 1, 2022, https://gh.bmj.com/content/7/12/e010713.

6. A. Case and A. Deaton, “The Great Divide: Education, Despair, and Death,” Annual Review of Economics 14, No. 1 (2022).

7. Liz Clark, Department of Defense (DOD) Quarterly Suicide Report (QSR) 1st Quarter, CY 2022, (Washington DC: 2022), https://www.dspo.mil/Portals/113/Documents/2022QSR/TAB%20A_20220630_OFR_Rpt_Q1%20CY22%20QSR.pdf?ver=MTb1QAwuRxan-Wo3FJ2XqA%3D%3D.

8. Available at https://www.instagram.com/dailystoic/?hl=en.

9. N. Sherman, “A Surprising Lesson from the Stoics,” Defense One, May 11, 2021, https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/05/surprising-lesson-stoics/173104.

10. Lucio Anneo Seneca and Ron Campbell (Translator), Letters from a Stoic (New York: Penguin Books, 1969).

11. Marcus Aurelius, Meditations (New York: Penguin Press, 2019).

12. See R.M. Kidder’s book, How Good People Make Tough Choices, for a discussion on the importance of mental rehearsal in making morally sound decisions.

13. Holiday, “What Is Stoicism? A Definition & 9 Stoic Exercises To Get You Started,” Daily Stoic, March 8, 2022, https://dailystoic.com/what-is-stoicism-a-definition-3-stoic-exercises-to-get-you-started.
The foundational Stoic publications include Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations, Seneca’s Letters From a Stoic, and Epictetus’ The Enchiridion.

14. Two great introductory books to Stoicism written by modern philosophers include Ryan Holiday’s works and William B. Irvine’s Guide to the Good Life.

15. Also see Stockdale’s two “occasional papers” that make up his “Stockdale on Stoicism” project. These papers are much shorter and more immediately accessible. They are The Stoic Warrior’s Triad: Tranquility, Fearlessness, and Freedom (https://www.usna.edu/Ethics/_files/documents/stoicism1.pdf) and Master of My Fate (https://www.usna.edu/Ethics/_files/documents/Stoicism2.pdf).

16. Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt, The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure, (Hertogenbosch: Van Haren Publishing, 2018).

17. James Stockdale, “Stockdale on Stoicism II: Master of My Fate,” Center for the Study of Professional Military Ethics, 2001, https://www.usna.edu/Ethics/_files/documents/Stoicism2.pdf.

Contested Logistics in the EABO Environment

A present look and way ahead

>1stLt German is currently a student at the Army’s Logistics Captains Career Course. He is a Ground Supply Officer and previously was the Battalion Supply Officer for 3d Littoral Logistics Battalion, 3d Marine Littoral Regiment and has a Master’s of Economics from Purdue University.

As the Marine Corps works on applying the ideas of Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) to sea denial and sensing across island chains in the Western Pacific, one critical component remains uncertain: logistics and sustainment. In a recent U.S. Naval Proceedings podcast, when asked what the Marine Corps still needs help on concerning Force Design 2030, the Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps, Gen Eric Smith, remarked, “Where we always have to work is logistics, that remains the pacing challenge.”1

The current supply chain is not responsive enough to support disbursed forces in the Western Pacific, and these challenges will only be exacerbated by greater distance and less infrastructure. The Marine Corps needs to find a way to adapt its systems to do so or adjust its business practices to provide sustained support. Looking at data from the Marine Corps supply and maintenance system (Global Combat Service System-Marine Corps [GCSS-MC]) for units in the weapons engagement zone (WEZ) can provide framing for this assessment. Evaluating supply and maintenance chains is relevant to every Marine occupational specialty, especially to the individual rifleman. Sustaining that Marine will be more challenging than ever. While Gen Smith was serving as the commander of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command, he commented that when considering logistics in a distributed environment everyone should be thinking, “need less.”With that being said, each asset is of even greater importance. The days are gone of fleets of HMMWVs and Seven-Tons at a commander’s disposal. Logistics assets within the Marine Littoral Regiment and in the WEZ will be few and far between. Neglecting the supply chain and maintaining these assets is a risk, and the data below highlights several processes that are vulnerable and worth consideration.

When items are ordered in GCSS-MC, the user assigns a priority code which tells the U.S. Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) the urgency of need for that requirement. The priority codes are associated with a force/activity designator (FAD), which is determined by a unit’s geographic location and proximity to a threat or enemy. Almost all of III MEF is poised to respond to a crisis in the Western Pacific and therefore has a FAD of II as depicted in Figure 1. This means units can order an item with a priority of 02 (highest priority), 05, or 12 (lowest priority).

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Figure 1. Designators used in data. (Figure provided by author.)
What next determines how fast the part arrives is the source of supply (SOS) which fulfills the requisition. By looking at SOS and priority code, it is possible to analyze how well the Marine Corps supply systems perform and how impactful priority codes are in reducing wait time. The USTRANSCOM-approved time definitive delivery standards set a goal of delivering an 02 item to Marine units under U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in eleven days (not considering backorders or delays from the SOS).USTRANSCOM does not rely solely on the priority code, though, because what actually determines if the item goes by ship or air is the required delivery date (RDD) inputted in GCSS-MC. Even if a maintainer makes a part 02, if they leave the RDD spot blank in GCSS, it will appear to USTRANSCOM as a low priority.
Using an ordinary least squared regression (a data science practice often used by economists), it is possible to parse out not only the expected wait time from a source of supply but also how much the priority code reduces wait time. An advantage of using the ordinary least squared model versus simply averaging the wait time for each variable is the “ceteris paribus” feature or “all else being equal.” This serves to isolate the effects of each variable from the others. This gives a more accurate estimate and thus allows for an accurate evaluation of the efficiencies or inefficiencies of a supply system.
Table 2 summarizes the results of the regression and displays the wait time measured in days for each SOS that had more than 200 requisitions in III MEF over one year and the effect that assigning a priority 02 or 05 had on wait time. Overall, the data included 244,910 requisitions in III MEF over the last year from 6 different SOSs. There are two supply management units (SMUs) in III MEF, one on Okinawa and one on Oahu, these on-island warehouses are the first stop for units requisitioning parts and supplies based on enterprise business rules; they are grouped together as one SOS for analysis. The right-most column shows the percent of requisitions filled by each SOS.
Image
Table 2. (Table provided by author.)

The most important results come from the two SOSs that filled 99 percent of the requisitions, which were unsurprisingly the SMUs and the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA). The SMUs are obviously performing the best, and even their priority twelve wait time is likely skewed by the rest of the SOSs and averages much lower (around four days). If the on-island SMUs do not have the item being requested, it is most often filled by Defense Logistics Agency. What is important to note though is that the wait times for Defense Logistics Agency are greater than two weeks even for 02 priority requisitions. Another interesting point is that 02 requisitions are only expected to come in around two days faster than a priority twelve item across all SOSs.

The results illustrate that there is little to no difference in 05 and 02 priority requirements in terms of wait time. Commanders often request weekly or daily updates on their 02 requirements; generally, they are almost identical to the 05 ones in terms of wait time. 02 priority requirements are defined as those without which “the requiring force is unable to perform assigned operational missions.”FAD II is also the FAD used by units “engaged or assigned to combat zones.”This implies that units in combat roles dislocated from the United States who need a part not stocked by a nearby SMU could expect to have the same wait time of over two weeks for their high priority requirements. Now, as mentioned earlier, some of these delays could be a result of not inputting the correct RDD correctly that then leads USTRANSCOM to assign a lower priority.

How does this apply to littoral logistics operations? For one, it is evident that the supply chain is a limiting factor. The tentative EABO manual specifically mentions how “distributing maintenance forces must be complemented by efficiency and responsiveness in the supply chain to ensure maintainers have timely access to repair parts, enabling them to restore equipment to a mission capable status.” Based on the data of requisitions in III MEF, distributing forces will have a hard time meeting this mission-capable status. Waiting over fourteen days in a contested environment is untenable; the deadlined asset will be a target well before the part can reach maintainers. Even if some of the results from above are truly from an improper RDD and priority combination, this still is a cause for concern given that the systems and pressure personnel will be under much greater pressure in the first island chain. In the status quo, units will have to anticipate lengthy wait times or construct highly comprehensive class IX resupply blocks in order to continue to operate effectively, both of which go against EABO principles.

There exists a plethora of solutions to these logistic problems. For one, automation of the correct combination of priority and RDD in GCSS would prevent one of the issues identified above. This is a simple coding switch in GCSS-MC that would prevent a Marine in the WEZ from accidentally getting his part sent via ship versus air. A more advanced and data-science-related solution is developing technology to determine supply needs in advance, this is currently being done with the Condition Based Maintenance Plus (CBM+) program. CBM+ involves placing sensors in military equipment like the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV), these sensors can then track a vehicle over its lifetime and use data science to predict part failures or prevent catastrophic failures.After data is collected, it can be “transformed via machine learning applications to develop predictive insights, which are then pushed to software-driven dashboards that can be used by maintainers and operators to make decisions based on evidence of need.”The more time and data the system receives, the more accurate the predictions will become which goes to partially solving the current iron-mountain problem. It cannot be overstated how important this technology is to units like the Marine Littoral Regiment which will be more disaggregated and removed from sources of supply than ever before. Capturing this data will better inform not only the maintenance and supply requirements of current equipment but procurement for future programs of record. The Marine Corps must continue to invest in this program and similar initiatives. If done correctly, this could reduce the wait time to zero—where a maintainer has a part just before it even becomes an issue.

Another solution to this problem is looking at alternatives to established and expensive programs of record. There is a lot of discussion around 21st-century foraging as a way to get after this idea. The suggestion is to purchase local commercial equipment to use for logistical purposes. The upfront expenses might be high to purchase some used vehicles or assets, but the money and time saved in maintenance cycle costs could be tremendous. Vehicles like local pickup trucks, commercial construction, or engineering equipment offer several advantages within the WEZ. They are discreet, reasonably cheap, already exist there, and for the most part, the logistics networks to support them already exist. This strategy also allows leaders the option to abandon assets without the repercussions of losing millions of dollars in government equipment. This also goes along with the thinking mentioned in the tentative EABO manual, if you cannot fix it, get rid of it—which is much easier to do when you did not invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into each asset. One great counterargument to 21st-century foraging is that the local economies of the islands and countries will not be able to support these requirements for a large force (the total personnel within a single Marine Littoral Regiment is in the thousands). An offshoot of 21st-century foraging is to create equipment that is easier to throw away. Unarmored, cheap, simple equipment is one way to get Marines moving faster and support them easier. In an EABO environment, Marines are less worried about an improvised explosive device than they are about a ballistic missile. In World War II, over a quarter of a million jeeps were made, and there was not much intermediate maintenance done on them because it was not worth it. If the jeep broke down and was more complicated than a spark plug or a tire change, it could be disposed of wherever it lay. Last year the Marine Corps Commandant, Gen Berger, mentioned this same idea, asking, “what if it’s done its business in a year and we buy another one?”This is the mindset that Marine Corps Systems Command and procurement specialists need to start asking themselves. If parts are hard to get, then a valid solution is equipment that needs fewer parts.

The EABO manual also offers a cruder solution hinted at above, that is, “If equipment cannot be repaired forward in an expeditious manner, then it should be evacuated, cannibalized, or abandoned.”Again, evacuation is arguably the ideal scenario, but evacuating a principal end item like a JLTV requires more than just a simple tow (a single vehicle weighs up to 21,000 pounds). On an island within the WEZ, limited by narrow avenues of approach and poor maneuverability, it is far more likely the equipment would need to be destroyed and left. One JLTV has a price tag of around $305,000; a single part like a power-control module can make the vehicle unusable, leaving that rifleman and his squad on the island with a giant metal target parked next to them. Units like the Littoral Logistics Battalion within the Marine Littoral Regiment rate only 13 of the D00457K JLTV variant, meaning losing one would decrease their readiness immediately by 8 percent, three of them gone puts them below 80 percent readiness (if we assume the rest are all in perfect condition). On top of that, the current maintenance cycle demands a huge amount of time and money; there are routine preventative maintenance costs, modification instructions, and part replacements that the current system demands. These all might work reasonably well in garrison, but they are a huge investment of manpower and funding which is arguably too large to then be abandoned because a part breaks and there is no chance of timely resupply. On top of this, the Marine Corps is fighting for every penny in order to invest and procure technologically advanced gear like Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, a replacement for the aging assault amphibious vehicle fleet and littoral amphibious warships. All this equipment will be required to defeat an adversary like China but arguing for these funds in Congress will be much less convincing if the Marine Corps abandons the same equipment on an island a few years later. The Marine Corps needs to confront this issue and accept it as a likely reality. When U.S. forces left billions of dollars of equipment in Afghanistan last year, the public outrage was enormous and top military officers were called to testify about the losses. If the Marine Corps does not adapt quickly to sustaining equipment and procuring “throw-away” equipment as mentioned above, then leaders will need to be prepared to answer similar questions.

Overall, the supply chain system needs to adapt to find ways to deliver parts faster, or at least consistently apply priority codes to get urgent parts delivered more efficiently. This applies to the EABO but also the modern battlefield in general. The pace of battle against a near-pear threat will be much faster than it was in Iraq or Afghanistan. Supply choices might need to be reevaluated using data science as here to see which systems or vendors are working and which are not. Programs like CBM+ need to be prioritized and funded so we can start collecting data and predicting now. If the system is unable to adapt, then commanders and higher will need to understand that the support they expect; is not going to be there anytime soon. The Marine Corps is going to have to find a way to come up with smarter, more flexible ideas to keep equipment operating or start investing in equipment easier to replace. There will not be wrecker support or an intermediate maintenance bay available in EABO. If parts are not anywhere close for delivery, the logistics community is going to have to figure out how to prioritize what they need and find creative ways to get it to the forward-deployed Marine. That rifleman will be the one that we are letting down by not working through these problems and facing these realities now; if we do not plan, they will be the ones figuring it out for themselves.


Notes

1. Bill Hamlet, “Proceedings Podcast Ep. 266—Stand-in Forces: Adapt or Perish,” The Proceedings Podcast, podcast audio, May 4, 2022, https://www.usni.org/maga zines/proceedings/theproceedingspodcast/proceedings-podcast-ep-266-stand-forces-adapt-or.

2. Philip Athey, “Is Expeditionary Foraging in the Corps’ Future?” Defense News, August 9, 2021, https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-marine-corps/2021/08/06/is-expeditionary-foraging-in-the-corps-future.

3. Staff, “Uniform Materiel Movement and Issue Priority System (UMMIPS),” Welcome to L&MR, n.d., https://www.acq.osd.mil/log/SCI/TDD_Standards.html.

4. Headquarters Marine Corps, MCO 4400.16H, Uniform Material Movement and Issue Priority Statement (Washington, DC: 2010).

5. Ibid.

6. Michael Whitaker, “USMC CBM+ Overview Brief,” presentation, Pentagon, Washington, DC, July 28, 2022.

7. Osman Sesay and Michael Whitaker, “Condition Based Maintenance Plus Minimum Viable Product (MVP) and Beyond,” (Washington, DC: December 2020).

8. Gina Harkins, “Top Marine General: We Need to Get Comfortable with ‘Throwaway’ Equipment,” Military.com, February 2, 2021, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/02/02/top-marine-general-we-need-get-comfortable-throwaway-equipment.html.

9. Headquarters Marine Corps, The Tentative Manual for Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (TM EABO) (Washington, DC: March 2019).

>Author’s Note: A special thanks to the following individuals for their assistance in the research and drafting of this article, CWO3 Erick Bannar, Capt Joseph Shavel, 1stLt William Allred, CWO2 Wendell T. Horton, LtCol Osman Sesay, and Mrs. Anna German.

George Washington’s Grit

2022 Gen Robert E. Hogaboom Leadership Writing Contest: Second Place

Lessons for today’s leaders

>LtCol Kopach is a reserve Marine Attache currently assigned to Headquarters Marine Corps and a civilian employee working for the DOD. He wrote this article as a National War College student for an elective George Washington: Strategy, Intelligence, and Revolution.

George Washington was a visionary leader and uniquely qualified to accomplish the complex challenges put before him. He demanded exceptionalism from himself, his soldiers, and his nation and worked tirelessly to achieve his goals, whether winning in conflict or securing peace for a new nation. He was a man of exceptional talent, which he wielded to significant effect throughout his lifetime. Beyond talent, however, a critical trait set him apart from other remarkable individuals of his time. This quality was grit.

Defining Grit
Esteemed psychologist and academic Angela Duckworth, who conducted extensive research on human performance, explains that grit—a combination of passion and perseverance—sets high achievers like Washington apart from those of equal talent and intellect.She defines passion as “staying consistent on goals over time” and perseverance as “working hard and bouncing back from setbacks.”While some individuals like Washington may have a high level of natural grit based on hereditary factors, grit can be developed over time through internal and external stimuli.By examining the events and experiences that molded George Washington, military leaders can derive lessons that can improve their grit. His example may enable leaders to harness their talents to accomplish long-term goals and achieve successful outcomes over time.

How Important is Talent?
Talent is a vital baseline determinant of exceptionalism, but it is only a starting point. Washington had many natural gifts from a young age. He was tall, athletic, and intellectually curious.Despite being above average, however, biographer Edward Lengel describes him in youth as “neither an intellectual nor a yokel, but a typical, somewhat precocious boy.”Psychologist Catharine Cox, who conducted pioneering research on intelligence and genius, judged Washington’s IQ to be around 140.6 This is superior intellect, but he was not among the most brilliant of his generation. Thomas Jefferson and John Adams had IQs of 160 and 155, respectively.7 When measured against other significant historical figures and among all other U.S. presidents, Washington is near the center of the pack.8

What sets Washington apart from his contemporaries is his possession and development of four psychological assets critical to grit. Duckworth identifies these as “interest, practice, purpose, and hope.”These traits are not immutable. Duckworth notes, “One can learn to discover, develop, and deepen your interests. You can acquire the habit of discipline. You can cultivate a sense of purpose and meaning. And you can teach yourself hope.”10 While Washington had a natural proclivity to these traits, he also deepened them over the years through study, experience, and reflection.

Discovering Interests and Following Passion
Discovering interests and following passions are critical components for developing grit.11 Although cliché, doing what you love and loving what you do determines the level of commitment. Washington explored many topics in his adolescence but developed an early passion for the military. Detailed journals and notes from his school years suggest he enthusiastically sought to expand his knowledge through self-study and exposure through hands-on learning.12 Lengel indicates that in his teenage years, Washington “attacked every subject with vigor, often drawing meticulous diagrams and taking notes” and only moved on to new areas after he fully absorbed the information.13

This period of discovery and broad exposure to many subjects allowed Washington to focus on areas that piqued his interest. The influence and mentorship of his half-brother Lawrence, who served in the British expeditionary army in the Caribbean, seems to have profoundly shaped his fascination with the military.14 Washington’s early passion for armed service only deepened over the years after he took on command roles of increasing responsibility. Having identified military arts as a discipline of interest, Washington sought to master its many facets through dedication and effort.

Practice, Discipline, and Hard Work
Practice and hard work were integral to Washington’s development as a competent military practitioner. Washington undertook efforts that deliberately pushed his limits to purposefully expand his capabilities. His efforts were akin to “deliberate practice,” a term introduced by Swedish psychologist K. Anders Ericsson, which describes “practice that focuses on tasks beyond your current level of competence and comfort.”15 To harness talent, it is necessary to work diligently and focus over time toward improvement, particularly in areas of weakness. Ten years or 10,000 hours of such practice is the estimated threshold to achieve true expertise.16

Washington gained such expertise while conducting months-long surveying expeditions and military endeavors during the French and Indian War.17 These missions were fraught with danger, hardship, and austerity that tested his mettle and pushed his physical and mental limits to exhaustion. His successive military campaigns and their associated challenges taught him valuable but often painful lessons that deepened his expertise.

Demanding and consistent effort is a critical component of the quality practice needed to develop grit. Lengel notes that Washington “worked with almost superhuman stamina, organizational ability, and regard for detail.”18 While in command of the Virginia Regiment and assembling the American Army in Boston, this level of effort was necessary to ensure the success of the fledgling enterprises.19 At Valley Forge, Washington exerted himself to even further extremes in miserable conditions to hold the Continental Army together.20 Washington emphasized to the company captains of his Virginia Regiment, “Discipline is the soul of an army. It makes small numbers formidable; procures success to the weak, and esteem to all.”21 Difficult experiences served as a crucible, forging Washington’s natural talent into expertise. His soldiers came to admire Washington’s dedication, which proved instrumental beyond the American Revolution. His principles and a sense of purpose guided his efforts allowing him to direct his energies toward a greater goal.

Purpose and Philosophy
A purpose or overarching philosophy to motivate actions is essential to developing passion. Duckworth notes, “A clear, well-defined philosophy give you guidelines and boundaries that keep you on track.”22 It can help focus tasks and short-term goals toward a higher purpose. Washington’s purpose in his early years was to establish himself as a man of good repute and eminence in society. According to historian William Sayen, “Washington strove to embody the manners and virtues of civility … and honor. Honor comprised all that was most dear to gentlemen warriors of the eighteenth century: manliness, respect, valor, fame, and glory.”23

As Washington matured and dove deeper into the cause of revolution and armed conflict, he developed a deep passion for the ideals of liberty that would form the new nation he fought to conceive.24 He maintained a strong conviction about the righteousness of the American cause. Washington’s short and long-term goals evolved with changing colonial dynamics and his personal circumstances, but his guiding principles never changed. The maxims he discovered in his youth while translating the Rules of Civility & Decent Behavior in Company and Conversation, such as honor and dignity, became the values he espoused throughout his life.25 The values remained consistent whether he commanded soldiers, served in government, or worked as a private citizen to run a prosperous business.

Hope and Optimism
Hope is the final but perhaps most consequential trait in determining a person’s grit. Hope involves an optimistic mindset and belief that efforts contribute to a better future.26 Why persevere if efforts are trivial or in vain? George Washington maintained hope and resolve throughout the Revolution that American forces would triumph. He rarely openly displayed discouragement or pessimism. After the defeat at the Battle of Brandywine and other operational setbacks, Washington maintained a determined posture belying no outward projection of despondency.27

Washington’s optimism was anchored in action and the idea of progress. Lengel notes, “When frustration or boredom led him into a funk … the prospect of battle or work could throw him almost instantaneously into a more optimistic frame of mind.”28 His bias for boldness often led to stunning successes, as was the case in his Christmas crossing of the Delaware.29 On other occasions, Washington’s desire to act led him to make rushed or imprudent decisions as was the case with his subsequent failed attack on Germantown.30 Over time, Washington came to understand the value of strategic patience and defense.31 He also learned to channel his need for action inward by dedicating himself to readying the Army for future battles. Washington stoked the flame of hope by channeling his energies into productive endeavors, always keeping his eye on a grand prize.

In his farewell address to the Army in November 1783, Washington expressed unbounded optimism for the new United States, stating, “It is universally acknowledged that the enlarged prospect of happiness, opened by the confirmation of our Independence and Sovereignty, almost exceeds the power of description.”32 Washington’s overarching worldview was sanguine despite moments of struggle and self-doubt. He trusted in the ideals of liberty for which he fought and the men who toiled with him in the great struggle. Hope allowed Washington to persevere in the face of odds that must have appeared insurmountable at times.

Key Takeaways
George Washington’s grit—his perseverance and passion—was instrumental to his success as a military commander and leader. His story teaches the value of grit as a character attribute in achieving successful outcomes in combat and life. Firstly, natural talent is important, but it is only part of the equation. Leaders should work to improve their own qualities of perseverance and passion and surround themselves with individuals exuding these qualities. A person with perseverance works hard toward goals, is undiscouraged by setbacks, remains committed to completing tasks despite challenges and obstacles, and never gives up.33 A person with passion maintains long-term interests, is undistracted by new ideas and projects, remains committed to set goals, and can focus on a project for multiple months or longer.34

Leaders can work to improve grit by focusing on the four key areas identified by Duckwork.35 Regarding interests, leaders should explore, inquire, and gravitate toward topics that spark fascination. A person is more likely to stay committed to a goal if they have a vested interest. Practice, hard work, and experience are critical to building expertise and resiliency. Leaders should practice with seriousness and dedication, pushing beyond their comfort zones to seek self-improvement. To find purpose, it helps to have a personal philosophy to stay motivated while pursuing long-term goals. Finally, an optimistic mindset will allow a person to persevere through challenging times. Developing a hopeful outlook may involve spirituality, fellowship, or finding a cause greater than oneself. It may also involve lessons from historical figures like George Washington or contemporary leaders who inspire greatness.

Conclusion
George Washington shines as an example of the multiplying effect grit can have on natural talent. While not as singularly outstanding as many of his peers in characteristics such as intelligence, grit distinguished him from the rest. He worked hard to develop and deepen the character traits essential to grit by deepening his interests, working hard to improve areas of weakness, finding a higher purpose, and maintaining a hopeful outlook throughout his life, thereby strengthening his passion and perseverance. He was aware of the importance of these attributes, noting in a letter to Gen Philip Schuyler at the outset of the Revolution that “Perseverance and Spirit have done Wonders in all ages.”36 Military leaders can follow Washington’s example to develop their own grit and foster a culture of grit. In doing so, leaders will maximize the potential of their unit and improve the likelihood of successful outcomes on and off the battlefield.

Statue of George Washington, located near Washington’s Headquarters at Valley Forge. A cast bronze copy of a marble statue by French sculptor Jean-Antoine Houdon. (Photo by author.)

Notes1. Angela Duckworth, Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance (New York: Scribner, 2016).

2. Ibid.

3. Ibid.

4. William Guthrie Sayen, “George Washington’s ‘Unmannerly’ Behavior: The Clash between Civility and Honor,” Virginia Magazine of History & Biography 107, No. 1 (1999).

5. Edward G. Lengel, General George Washington: A Military Life (New York: Random House, 2007).

6. Rodrigo de la Jara, “Cox’s Study of 300 (301) Eminent Geniuses born from 1450 to 1850, including Flynn Effect Calculations, listed alphabetically and by descending IQ,” IQ Comparison Site, n.d., https://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/cox300.aspx.

7. Ibid.

8. Catharine Cox, Genetic Studies of Genius II: The Early Mental Traits of Three Hundred Geniuses, (Stanford University Press, 1926); and Keith Simonton, “Presidential IQ, Openness, Intellectual Brilliance, and Leadership: Estimates and Correlations for 42 U.S. Chief Executives,” Political Psychology 27, No. 1 (2006).

9. Grit.

10. Ibid.

11. Ibid.

12. Ibid.

13. A Military Life.

14. Ibid.

15. K. Anders Ericsson, Michael J. Prietula, and Edward T. Cokely, “The Making of an Expert,” Harvard Business Review, July-August 2007, https://hbr.org/2007/07/the-making-of-an-expert.

16. Ibid.

17. A Military Life.

18. Ibid.

19. Ibid.

20. Ibid.

21. George Washington, “Instructions to Company Captains,” July 29, 1757, https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Washington/02-04-02-0223.

22. Grit.

23. “‘Unmannerly’ Behavior.”

24. A Military Life.

25. “‘Unmannerly’ Behavior.”

26. Grit.

27. A Military Life.

28. Ibid.

29. Ibid.

30. Ibid.

31. Woody Holton, “The Father of our Country Didn’t Always Know Best, But He Learned and Changed,” The Washington Post, June 29, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/the-father-of-our-country-didnt-always-know-best-but-he-learned-and-changed/2018/06/29/13ccd670-796b-11e8-80be-6d32e182a3bc_story.html.

32. George Washington, “Washington’s Farewell Address to the Army,” November 2, 1783, https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Washington/99-01-02-12012.

33. Grit.

34. Ibid.

35. Ibid.

36. George Washington, “From George Washington to Major General Philip Schuyler,” August 20, 1775, https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Washington/03-01-02-0233.